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alredond

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$501.8k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$2,080
Last 30 days −$5 · $1.42M volume · 1,109 trades · since Oct 25, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$6,911
Open P&L · 146 positions
−$4,782
Closed-position win rate
90%
226 closed
Wallet age · markets
729d
367 markets traded

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $37.2k
2.8× usual
0% 129d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $10.9k0% 134d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $11.3k1% 145d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $11.2k100% 148d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢ $12.3k1% 149d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ $12.9k99% 152d agoexcluded
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $13.9k1% 152d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $10.6k100% 152d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ $12.3k1% 156d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $13.7k99% 156d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $27.3k
2.1× usual
99% 158d agoexcluded
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ $27.0k
2.0× usual
98% 162d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢ $12.7k99% 185d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $15.9k100% 189d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.2¢ $31.9k
2.4× usual
1% 190d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.1¢ $11.0k99% 190d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $15.0k0% 191d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $10.0k100% 193d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $11.1k100% 194d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 98.5¢ $31.6k
2.4× usual
2% 273d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.1¢ $25.3k98% 274d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 96.1¢ $61.4k
4.6× usual
4% 278d agomissed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 95.7¢ $10.2k4% 279d agomissed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 97¢ $12.6k97% 286d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 90¢ $25.8k10% 292d agomissed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 89¢ $26.6k
2.0× usual
89% 293d agocalled
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$37.2k
LOW alredond · 129d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$10.9k
LOW alredond · 134d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.4¢$11.3k
LOW alredond · 145d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.5¢$11.2k
LOW alredond · 148d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 98.7¢$12.3k
LOW alredond · 149d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.8¢$12.9k
LOW alredond · 152d ago
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?excluded
SELL No @ 99.5¢$13.9k
LOW alredond · 152d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.5¢$10.6k
LOW alredond · 152d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.2¢$12.3k
LOW alredond · 156d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.9¢$13.7k
LOW alredond · 156d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.3¢$27.3k
LOW alredond · 158d ago
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?excluded
BUY No @ 98.3¢$27.0k
LOW alredond · 162d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.4¢$12.7k
LOW alredond · 185d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$15.9k
LOW alredond · 189d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.2¢$31.9k
LOW alredond · 190d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.1¢$11.0k
LOW alredond · 190d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$15.0k
LOW alredond · 191d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$10.0k
LOW alredond · 193d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$11.1k
LOW alredond · 194d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 98.5¢$31.6k
LOW alredond · 273d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 98.1¢$25.3k
LOW alredond · 274d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 96.1¢$61.4k
MED alredond · 278d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 95.7¢$10.2k
LOW alredond · 279d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 97¢$12.6k
LOW alredond · 286d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 90¢$25.8k
MED alredond · 292d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 89¢$26.6k
LOW alredond · 293d ago

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