Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Who's on each side
Whale money on this market, split by track record. Proven wallets beat the price over 20+ graded bets; losing wallets clearly lost to it. Everyone else is unrated.
| Side | All whales | Proven | Losing |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | $1.73M 26 flags |
$83.2k 1 wallet |
$24.3k 1 wallet |
| Not No | $988.6k 9 flags |
$219.1k 1 wallet |
none |
A proven wallet on a side is a reason to look closer, not a verdict. Records come from past bets; see how to use this. Information, not advice.
Flags on this market
| Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|
| LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $242.2k | excluded |
| LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $30.6k | excluded |
| LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $24.3k | excluded |
| LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $199.6k 7.5× usual |
excluded |
| LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $172.7k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
| LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ | $11.3k | excluded |
| MED SELL No @ 99.6¢ | $169.3k 7.1× usual |
excluded |
| LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ | $99.5k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
| LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ | $87.3k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ | $15.4k | excluded |
| LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ | $34.5k | excluded |
| LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $18.4k | excluded |
| LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $67.8k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ | $89.6k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
| LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ | $244.1k 7.1× usual |
excluded |
| LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ | $49.7k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $204.2k 6.7× usual |
excluded |
| LOW BUY No @ 99¢ | $25.3k | excluded |
| LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ | $32.7k | excluded |
| LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ | $52.1k | excluded |
| LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ | $46.6k | excluded |
| LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ | $29.6k | excluded |
| LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ | $98.8k | excluded |
| LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
| LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ | $13.9k | excluded |
| LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ | $69.2k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ | $111.2k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
| LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ | $88.8k 3.3× usual |
excluded |
| LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ | $98.6k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
| LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ | $148.0k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
| LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ | $49.9k | excluded |
Summary
WhaleGrader has logged 35 whale trades on this market totalling $2.72M from 16 wallets. The largest was $244.1k (sell No at 99.5¢). Most whale money ($1.73M) went to No. 26 of 35 graded flags here called the outcome. The biggest whale here, JAHODA ($518.2k), has called 8 of 9 graded flags overall (+5.7 pts vs price).
Market data from Polymarket (will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-july-2026-meeting).