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Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Resolved: No
Flags
35
Net whale flow → outcome 1
−$744.9k
Price 7d ago → now
—
Category
Economy
Live on this marketconnecting…
Loading the latest $10k+ trades from Polymarket…
Straight from Polymarket's public trade feed, refreshed every 10s while this tab is open. Grades appear after markets resolve. Information, not advice.

Who's on each side

Whale money on this market, split by track record. Proven wallets beat the price over 20+ graded bets; losing wallets clearly lost to it. Everyone else is unrated.

SideAll whalesProvenLosing
No$1.73M
26 flags
$83.2k
1 wallet
$24.3k
1 wallet
Not No$988.6k
9 flags
$219.1k
1 wallet
none

A proven wallet on a side is a reason to look closer, not a verdict. Records come from past bets; see how to use this. Information, not advice.

Flags on this market

FlagSizeImplied oddsWalletWhenResult
LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $242.2k100% tipISappreciated86d agoexcluded
LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $30.6k100% 0x2a5f…6c9286d agoexcluded
LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $24.3k100% aenews2 LOSING86d agoexcluded
LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $30.0k100% AZwater86d agoexcluded
LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $199.6k
7.5× usual
0% TheReturnOfDarthMaul86d agoexcluded
LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $12.0k100% OLOTH87d agoexcluded
LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $15.0k0% QMG-CORE88d agoexcluded
LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $172.7k
3.4× usual
100% JAHODA88d agoexcluded
LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $11.3k100% AngryRhino90d agoexcluded
MED SELL No @ 99.6¢ $169.3k
7.1× usual
0% 0x8b4b…541b PROVEN91d agoexcluded
LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $99.5k
3.0× usual
1% ranger4494d agoexcluded
LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $87.3k
2.7× usual
0% ranger4494d agoexcluded
LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $25.0k100% hideo95d agoexcluded
LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $15.4k100% 0x8b4b…541b PROVEN100d agoexcluded
LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $34.5k0% ChrisZyy-Real100d agoexcluded
LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $18.4k100% ChrisZyy-Real100d agoexcluded
LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $67.8k
2.8× usual
100% 0x8b4b…541b PROVEN101d agoexcluded
LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $89.6k
3.0× usual
1% gokol101d agoexcluded
LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $244.1k
7.1× usual
1% pako101d agoexcluded
LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $49.7k
2.1× usual
1% 0x8b4b…541b PROVEN102d agoexcluded
LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $204.2k
6.7× usual
100% foodenjoyer102d agoexcluded
LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $25.3k99% ranger44109d agoexcluded
LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $32.7k99% ranger44111d agoexcluded
LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ $52.1k99% JAHODA114d agoexcluded
LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $46.6k99% JAHODA114d agoexcluded
LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ $29.6k99% TheReturnOfDarthMaul115d agoexcluded
LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ $98.8k99% JAHODA117d agoexcluded
LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ $14.9k99% gokol119d agoexcluded
LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ $13.9k99% pako119d agoexcluded
LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $69.2k
2.3× usual
99% gokol120d agoexcluded
LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ $111.2k
3.2× usual
99% pako120d agoexcluded
LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ $88.8k
3.3× usual
99% TheReturnOfDarthMaul120d agoexcluded
LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ $98.6k
3.7× usual
99% TheReturnOfDarthMaul122d agoexcluded
LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ $148.0k
2.9× usual
99% JAHODA123d agoexcluded
LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $49.9k98% TheReturnOfDarthMaul123d agoexcluded

Summary

WhaleGrader has logged 35 whale trades on this market totalling $2.72M from 16 wallets. The largest was $244.1k (sell No at 99.5¢). Most whale money ($1.73M) went to No. 26 of 35 graded flags here called the outcome. The biggest whale here, JAHODA ($518.2k), has called 8 of 9 graded flags overall (+5.7 pts vs price).

Market data from Polymarket (will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-july-2026-meeting).