← Wallets
+$5,261No · avg 86¢ → 91.5¢ · $88.9k+$6,542Yes · avg 84¢ → 91.5¢ · $83.7k+$1,117No · avg 85¢ → 92.5¢ · $14.2k+$3,194Yes · avg 50¢ → 66¢ · $13.2k · 2 proven with, 0 against+$426No · avg 70¢ → 74¢ · $10.4k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$88No · avg 97¢ → 97.9¢ · $10.1k+$402No · avg 87¢ → 94¢ · $5,402+$248Yes · avg 60¢ → 64¢ · $5,248
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 3.0 wins, so it did -23.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-23.8 pts
Called / graded
2/4
Expected from price
3.0
Flagged volume
$162.5k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$138.4k
Last 30 days −$6,695 · $6.63M volume · 8,029 trades · since Jul 22, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$125.3k
Open P&L · 71 positions
+$13.5k
Closed-position win rate
73%
390 closed
Wallet age · markets
824d
400 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 4 | 2 | 3.0 | -23.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $16.5k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $28.7k | excluded |
 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | MED SELL No @ 90¢ | $32.2k | missed |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $20.0k | missed |
 Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 95.8¢ | $12.5k | called |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 94.4¢ | $10.9k | called |
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 74¢ | $16.7k | excluded |
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