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What this means. A wallet put $199.6k on not No, at a price that gave it a 0% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no clear edge yet (-2.9 pts over 22 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$199.6k
SELL No @ 99.8¢ · 200,000 shares
Size ≥ $100kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)7.5× this wallet's usual betEconomy
What happened
Wallet TheReturnOfDarthMaul took No (sell) for $199.6k at an average 99.8¢. At that price the market implied a 0% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $199.6k+2
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 99.8¢
- Implied odds
- 0.2%
- Size
- $199.6k
- Placed
- Jul 29, 07:21 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 28, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- TheReturnOfDarthMaul
- Tx
- 0xa7ea3a8b…
This wallet's graded record
15/22-2.9 pts
expected 15.6 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $242.2k | excluded |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $30.6k | excluded |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $24.3k | excluded |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $15.0k | excluded |