Monday, January 12, 2026

116 whale trades totalling $3.34M from 68 wallets. Biggest: $200.0k buy No on “Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?” at 82¢.

Biggest trades

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	Wallet	When	Result
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED BUY No @ 82¢	$200.0k 2.5× usual	82%	0x40e1…973f	285d ago	called	Trade this
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$99.9k	100%	helloiamworld	284d ago	excluded
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢	$98.5k	98%	JAHODA	284d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED SELL Yes @ 93.8¢	$93.8k 4.8× usual	6%	superblueinc	284d ago	missed	Trade this
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$90.5k 2.2× usual	100%	Pestle	285d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?	MED BUY No @ 90.2¢	$79.0k 3.4× usual	90%	GoriIIa PROVEN	284d ago	called	Trade this
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢	$73.9k	98%	elmcap2	284d ago	excluded
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	MED BUY No @ 95.8¢	$73.1k 3.2× usual	96%	GoriIIa PROVEN	284d ago	called	Trade this
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 93.7¢	$63.6k 2.3× usual	94%	0x7131…29cc	284d ago	called	Trade this
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$62.8k	100%	Pestle	285d ago	excluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$59.0k	100%	Pestle	284d ago	excluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$58.9k	100%	Pestle	284d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 93.3¢	$56.3k	93%	aenews2 LOSING	284d ago	called	Trade this
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 93.3¢	$51.5k	93%	Labtrador	284d ago	called	Trade this
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 93.8¢	$50.0k	94%	0x2aac…1b36	284d ago	called	Trade this

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?called

BUY No @ 82¢$200.0k

MED 0x40e1…973f · 285d ago

Trade this

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$99.9k

LOW helloiamworld · 284d ago

New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? excluded

BUY No @ 98.5¢$98.5k

LOW JAHODA · 284d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?missed

SELL Yes @ 93.8¢$93.8k

MED superblueinc · 284d ago

Trade this

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.8¢$90.5k

LOW Pestle · 285d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?called

BUY No @ 90.2¢$79.0k

MED PROVEN GoriIIa · 284d ago

Trade this

New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? excluded

BUY No @ 98.5¢$73.9k

LOW elmcap2 · 284d ago

Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?called

BUY No @ 95.8¢$73.1k

MED PROVEN GoriIIa · 284d ago

Trade this

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 93.7¢$63.6k

MED 0x7131…29cc · 284d ago

Trade this

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$62.8k

LOW Pestle · 285d ago

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$59.0k

LOW Pestle · 284d ago

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.7¢$58.9k

LOW Pestle · 284d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 93.3¢$56.3k

LOW LOSING aenews2 · 284d ago

Trade this

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 93.3¢$51.5k

LOW Labtrador · 284d ago

Trade this

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 93.8¢$50.0k

LOW 0x2aac…1b36 · 284d ago

Trade this

Most traded markets

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

$899.0k · 32 flags

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

$454.0k · 18 flags

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

$394.0k · 8 flags

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

$305.6k · 8 flags

New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?

$274.6k · 7 flags

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?

$180.4k · 7 flags