superblueinc

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 3.8 wins, so it did +5.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?−$919Yes · avg 25¢ → 21¢ · $4,110

Price-adjusted edge

+5.8 pts

Called / graded

4/4

Expected from price

3.8

Flagged volume

$284.4k

Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.6 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$18.6k

Last 30 days +$3,247 · $2.67M volume · 2,747 trades · since Sep 05, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$70.5k

Open P&L · 5 positions

−$51.0k

Closed-position win rate

74%

177 closed

Wallet age · markets

415d

149 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Crypto	3	3	2.8	+6.7 pts
Other	1	1	1.0	+3.1 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?	LOW BUY No @ 92.4¢	$20.0k	92%	143d ago	called
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?	LOW BUY No @ 93¢	$20.0k	93%	143d ago	called
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?	LOW BUY No @ 94.6¢	$18.9k	95%	144d ago	called
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?	LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢	$20.0k	98%	162d ago	excluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?	LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢	$19.4k	97%	218d ago	called
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 82¢	$10.8k	18%	243d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 94.9¢	$19.5k	95%	282d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED SELL Yes @ 93.8¢	$93.8k 4.8× usual	6%	284d ago	missed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 90¢	$45.0k 2.3× usual	90%	290d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢	$17.0k	90%	293d ago	called

Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?called

BUY No @ 92.4¢$20.0k

LOW superblueinc · 143d ago

Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?called

BUY No @ 93¢$20.0k

LOW superblueinc · 143d ago

Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?called

BUY No @ 94.6¢$18.9k

LOW superblueinc · 144d ago

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?excluded

BUY No @ 97.8¢$20.0k

LOW superblueinc · 162d ago

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?called

BUY No @ 96.9¢$19.4k

LOW superblueinc · 218d ago

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded

SELL No @ 82¢$10.8k

LOW superblueinc · 243d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 94.9¢$19.5k

LOW superblueinc · 282d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?missed

SELL Yes @ 93.8¢$93.8k

MED superblueinc · 284d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 90¢$45.0k

MED superblueinc · 290d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 90¢$17.0k

LOW superblueinc · 293d ago

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