Sunday, January 11, 2026

76 whale trades totalling $4.06M from 56 wallets. Biggest: $1.29M sell No on “Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?” at 99.9¢. 0 of 2 flags that resolved today called the outcome vs 0.1 expected (-7.5 pts).

Biggest trades

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	Wallet	When	Result
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	MED SELL No @ 99.9¢	$1.29M 4.2× usual	0%	Ryan888	285d ago	excluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	MED SELL No @ 99.9¢	$521.3k 5.8× usual	0%	expectless	285d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED BUY No @ 80¢	$240.0k 6.4× usual	80%	Erasmus. PROVEN	285d ago	called	Trade this
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 95.9¢	$167.8k 4.3× usual	96%	HH168	285d ago	called	Trade this
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢	$99.7k	0%	luciousleft	285d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED SELL Yes @ 95.5¢	$92.9k	5%	0x2aac…1b36	285d ago	missed	Trade this
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 95.6¢	$60.8k	96%	luciousleft	285d ago	called	Trade this
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED BUY No @ 78¢	$60.7k	78%	0xffde…c665	286d ago	called	Trade this
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?	LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢	$60.3k	0%	0x89b8…4710	285d ago	excluded
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026?	MED SELL No @ 96.8¢	$50.1k	3%	GigaBrainConsulting	285d ago	missed	Trade this
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	MED SELL No @ 95.9¢	$49.5k	4%	0x6d77…b72c	285d ago	missed	Trade this
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 80¢	$48.1k	80%	0x6d77…b72c	285d ago	called	Trade this
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED BUY No @ 81¢	$44.6k	81%	KokoVeLeon1	285d ago	called	Trade this
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED SELL Yes @ 95.4¢	$42.0k	5%	uncleroger	285d ago	missed	Trade this
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 80¢	$40.0k	80%	WordleAddict	285d ago	called	Trade this

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL No @ 99.9¢$1.29M

MED Ryan888 · 285d ago

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL No @ 99.9¢$521.3k

MED expectless · 285d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?called

BUY No @ 80¢$240.0k

MED PROVEN Erasmus. · 285d ago

Trade this

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 95.9¢$167.8k

MED HH168 · 285d ago

Trade this

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL No @ 99.7¢$99.7k

LOW luciousleft · 285d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?missed

SELL Yes @ 95.5¢$92.9k

MED 0x2aac…1b36 · 285d ago

Trade this

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 95.6¢$60.8k

MED luciousleft · 285d ago

Trade this

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?called

BUY No @ 78¢$60.7k

MED 0xffde…c665 · 286d ago

Trade this

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?excluded

SELL No @ 99.6¢$60.3k

LOW 0x89b8…4710 · 285d ago

Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026?missed

SELL No @ 96.8¢$50.1k

MED GigaBrainConsulting · 285d ago

Trade this

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?missed

SELL No @ 95.9¢$49.5k

MED 0x6d77…b72c · 285d ago

Trade this

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?called

BUY No @ 80¢$48.1k

LOW 0x6d77…b72c · 285d ago

Trade this

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?called

BUY No @ 81¢$44.6k

MED KokoVeLeon1 · 285d ago

Trade this

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?missed

SELL Yes @ 95.4¢$42.0k

MED uncleroger · 285d ago

Trade this

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?called

BUY No @ 80¢$40.0k

LOW WordleAddict · 285d ago

Trade this

Most traded markets

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

$1.81M · 2 flags

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

$733.8k · 21 flags

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

$610.6k · 16 flags

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

$179.0k · 5 flags

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?

$132.2k · 4 flags

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?

$119.7k · 5 flags