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uncleroger

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +8.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+8.0 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$1.75M
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$158.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $16.57M volume · 11,206 trades · since Nov 02, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$287.1k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
721d
794 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Economy110.8+20.4 pts
Other100.0-4.3 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 83¢ $20.8k83% 94d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 94¢ $39.6k94% 101d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 72¢ $19.0k28% 102d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 80¢ $10.3k80% 103d agocalled
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to AdvanceLOW BUY Argentina @ 99¢ $24.8k99% 108d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.5¢ $25.7k98% 198d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢ $10.6k99% 199d agoexcluded
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $22.9k99% 204d agoexcluded
Trump out as President by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $10.3k99% 219d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢ $13.7k98% 238d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $26.4k100% 263d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ $33.9k100% 265d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $12.5k0% 268d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.3¢ $30.2k98% 273d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 95.7¢ $16.8k96% 279d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 94.8¢ $12.1k95% 281d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 95.4¢ $42.0k5% 285d agomissed
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 95.7¢ $14.4k4% 287d agomissed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢ $36.0k90% 290d agocalled
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $12.9k100% 318d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?MED BUY No @ 99.4¢ $266.4k
8.8× usual
99% 320d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $49.6k99% 325d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?MED SELL No @ 99¢ $269.4k
8.9× usual
1% 326d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ $34.6k99% 329d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $18.7k99% 332d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99¢ $19.8k1% 332d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ $98.7k
3.3× usual
99% 337d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98¢ $58.7k98% 343d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 97.8¢ $89.6k
3.0× usual
2% 343d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 97.7¢ $78.2k
2.6× usual
98% 346d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 97.3¢ $41.3k3% 349d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ $42.6k98% 349d agoexcluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?MED SELL Yes @ 95.7¢ $34.1k4% 353d agoexcluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW BUY Yes @ 93.5¢ $10.8k94% 356d agocalled
Xi Jinping out in 2025?MED BUY No @ 96.3¢ $109.2k
3.6× usual
96% 359d agocalled
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?MED SELL Yes @ 93.1¢ $58.2k7% 366d agomissed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW BUY Yes @ 91.9¢ $39.3k92% 369d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 83¢$20.8k
LOW uncleroger · 94d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 94¢$39.6k
LOW uncleroger · 101d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 72¢$19.0k
LOW uncleroger · 102d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 80¢$10.3k
LOW uncleroger · 103d ago
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advanceexcluded
BUY Argentina @ 99¢$24.8k
LOW uncleroger · 108d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 98.5¢$25.7k
LOW uncleroger · 198d ago
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.4¢$10.6k
LOW uncleroger · 199d ago
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?excluded
BUY No @ 99¢$22.9k
LOW uncleroger · 204d ago
Trump out as President by March 31?excluded
BUY No @ 99.2¢$10.3k
LOW uncleroger · 219d ago
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?excluded
BUY No @ 97.9¢$13.7k
LOW uncleroger · 238d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$26.4k
LOW uncleroger · 263d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.6¢$33.9k
LOW uncleroger · 265d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$12.5k
LOW uncleroger · 268d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 98.3¢$30.2k
LOW uncleroger · 273d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 95.7¢$16.8k
LOW uncleroger · 279d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 94.8¢$12.1k
LOW uncleroger · 281d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 95.4¢$42.0k
MED uncleroger · 285d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?missed
SELL No @ 95.7¢$14.4k
LOW uncleroger · 287d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 90¢$36.0k
LOW uncleroger · 290d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.5¢$12.9k
LOW uncleroger · 318d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.4¢$266.4k
MED uncleroger · 320d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.2¢$49.6k
LOW uncleroger · 325d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99¢$269.4k
MED uncleroger · 326d ago
Xi Jinping out in 2025?excluded
BUY No @ 98.7¢$34.6k
LOW uncleroger · 329d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.3¢$18.7k
LOW uncleroger · 332d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99¢$19.8k
LOW uncleroger · 332d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.7¢$98.7k
LOW uncleroger · 337d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98¢$58.7k
LOW uncleroger · 343d ago
Xi Jinping out in 2025?excluded
SELL No @ 97.8¢$89.6k
LOW uncleroger · 343d ago
Xi Jinping out in 2025?excluded
BUY No @ 97.7¢$78.2k
LOW uncleroger · 346d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 97.3¢$41.3k
LOW uncleroger · 349d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 97.5¢$42.6k
LOW uncleroger · 349d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?excluded
SELL Yes @ 95.7¢$34.1k
MED uncleroger · 353d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?called
BUY Yes @ 93.5¢$10.8k
LOW uncleroger · 356d ago
Xi Jinping out in 2025?called
BUY No @ 96.3¢$109.2k
MED uncleroger · 359d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?missed
SELL Yes @ 93.1¢$58.2k
MED uncleroger · 366d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?called
BUY Yes @ 91.9¢$39.3k
LOW uncleroger · 369d ago

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