Saturday, January 10, 2026

98 whale trades totalling $3.48M from 57 wallets. Biggest: $181.8k buy No on “Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?” at 80¢.

Biggest trades

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	Wallet	When	Result
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED BUY No @ 80¢	$181.8k 6.9× usual	80%	chungguskhan	287d ago	called	Trade this
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$133.2k 3.2× usual	100%	Pestle	286d ago	excluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$127.1k 3.1× usual	100%	Pestle	286d ago	excluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$125.5k 3.0× usual	100%	Pestle	286d ago	excluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$123.2k 3.0× usual	100%	Pestle	286d ago	excluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$122.0k 2.9× usual	100%	Pestle	286d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	HIGH SELL Yes @ 96.4¢	$121.6k 2.9× usual	4%	Pestle	286d ago	missed	Trade this
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	HIGH SELL Yes @ 96.8¢	$117.9k 2.8× usual	3%	Pestle	286d ago	missed	Trade this
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$112.0k 2.7× usual	100%	Pestle	286d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED SELL No @ 80¢	$103.9k 3.9× usual	20%	chungguskhan	287d ago	missed	Trade this
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 95.1¢	$77.3k	95%	0xdd54…b245	286d ago	called	Trade this
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 97¢	$71.0k	3%	Pestle	286d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 97.2¢	$65.9k	97%	Official-Market-Maker	287d ago	excluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 97.6¢	$57.5k	98%	Pestle	287d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 95.9¢	$56.9k	96%	0x2aac…1b36	286d ago	called	Trade this

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?called

BUY No @ 80¢$181.8k

MED chungguskhan · 287d ago

Trade this

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$133.2k

LOW Pestle · 286d ago

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$127.1k

LOW Pestle · 286d ago

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$125.5k

LOW Pestle · 286d ago

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.7¢$123.2k

LOW Pestle · 286d ago

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.7¢$122.0k

LOW Pestle · 286d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?missed

SELL Yes @ 96.4¢$121.6k

HIGH Pestle · 286d ago

Trade this

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?missed

SELL Yes @ 96.8¢$117.9k

HIGH Pestle · 286d ago

Trade this

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.7¢$112.0k

LOW Pestle · 286d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?missed

SELL No @ 80¢$103.9k

MED chungguskhan · 287d ago

Trade this

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 95.1¢$77.3k

LOW 0xdd54…b245 · 286d ago

Trade this

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL Yes @ 97¢$71.0k

LOW Pestle · 286d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY Yes @ 97.2¢$65.9k

LOW Official-Market-Maker · 287d ago

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 97.6¢$57.5k

LOW Pestle · 287d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 95.9¢$56.9k

MED 0x2aac…1b36 · 286d ago

Trade this

Most traded markets

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

$846.6k · 22 flags

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

$696.5k · 24 flags

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

$645.1k · 13 flags

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

$633.5k · 11 flags

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?

$133.6k · 3 flags

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

$103.3k · 3 flags