Monday, January 5, 2026

440 whale trades totalling $7.56M from 237 wallets. Biggest: $406.1k buy No on “Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?” at 99.3¢.

Biggest trades

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	Wallet	When	Result
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢	$406.1k 12.6× usual	99%	wkmfa518	292d ago	excluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢	$199.2k	0%	Ryan888	291d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 91¢	$189.6k 8.2× usual	91%	GoriIIa PROVEN	292d ago	called	Trade this
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$100.0k 2.8× usual	99%	jwp9999	291d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢	$79.2k	90%	0x6b2c…5341	292d ago	called	Trade this
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢	$69.0k	99%	4gibg4i3o	292d ago	excluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢	$65.7k	0%	Ryan888	292d ago	excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 96.5¢	$61.8k 2.4× usual	97%	SwissMiss LOSING	291d ago	called	Trade this
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 79¢	$61.7k 2.3× usual	79%	chungguskhan	292d ago	missed	Trade this
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢	$51.4k	90%	0x6b2c…5341	291d ago	called	Trade this
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY No @ 91¢	$51.3k	91%	Pestle	291d ago	called	Trade this
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED SELL Yes @ 90¢	$51.1k	10%	Pestle	291d ago	missed	Trade this
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 90¢	$51.0k 2.2× usual	90%	0xf98b…bfc5	291d ago	called	Trade this
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 8.2¢	$50.0k	8%	0x042e…247f	291d ago	missed	Trade this
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$49.7k	99%	0x44ef…ff3d	291d ago	excluded

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.3¢$406.1k

LOW wkmfa518 · 292d ago

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL No @ 99.6¢$199.2k

LOW Ryan888 · 291d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 91¢$189.6k

MED PROVEN GoriIIa · 292d ago

Trade this

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.4¢$100.0k

LOW jwp9999 · 291d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 90¢$79.2k

LOW 0x6b2c…5341 · 292d ago

Trade this

Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.1¢$69.0k

LOW 4gibg4i3o · 292d ago

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL No @ 99.6¢$65.7k

LOW Ryan888 · 292d ago

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?called

BUY No @ 96.5¢$61.8k

MED LOSING SwissMiss · 291d ago

Trade this

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?missed

BUY No @ 79¢$61.7k

LOW chungguskhan · 292d ago

Trade this

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 90¢$51.4k

LOW 0x6b2c…5341 · 291d ago

Trade this

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY No @ 91¢$51.3k

MED Pestle · 291d ago

Trade this

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?missed

SELL Yes @ 90¢$51.1k

MED Pestle · 291d ago

Trade this

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?called

BUY No @ 90¢$51.0k

LOW 0xf98b…bfc5 · 291d ago

Trade this

Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026?missed

BUY Yes @ 8.2¢$50.0k

MED 0x042e…247f · 291d ago

Trade this

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.4¢$49.7k

LOW 0x44ef…ff3d · 291d ago

Most traded markets

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

$3.19M · 218 flags

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

$2.91M · 176 flags

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

$529.7k · 11 flags

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?

$184.6k · 6 flags

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

$160.6k · 5 flags

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?

$124.7k · 6 flags