Tuesday, January 6, 2026

315 whale trades totalling $5.61M from 170 wallets. Biggest: $412.9k sell No on “Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?” at 99.4¢. 1 of 1 flags that resolved today called the outcome vs 1.0 expected (+3.5 pts).

Biggest trades

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	Wallet	When	Result
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	MED SELL No @ 99.4¢	$412.9k 5.1× usual	1%	0xce5b…047a	290d ago	excluded
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢	$336.8k 7.4× usual	99%	4gibg4i3o	290d ago	excluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	MED SELL No @ 99.4¢	$205.5k 2.5× usual	1%	0xce5b…047a	290d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢	$90.0k 3.2× usual	90%	TwoEyes	290d ago	called	Trade this
Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$50.0k 2.5× usual	0%	0x2f4a…7c9f	291d ago	excluded
Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$50.0k	0%	chungguskhan	290d ago	excluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 90¢	$46.0k	90%	0xdd54…b245	290d ago	called	Trade this
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 90¢	$45.0k 2.3× usual	90%	superblueinc	290d ago	called	Trade this
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 90¢	$45.0k	90%	0xc309…5ccf	291d ago	called	Trade this
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢	$37.8k	90%	0xdd54…b245	291d ago	called	Trade this
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢	$36.0k	90%	uncleroger	290d ago	called	Trade this
Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$35.0k	0%	chungguskhan	290d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED SELL No @ 91¢	$31.9k	9%	betwick	290d ago	missed	Trade this
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$25.0k	100%	no-cry-in-casino	290d ago	excluded
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$24.5k	0%	no-cry-in-casino	290d ago	excluded

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL No @ 99.4¢$412.9k

MED 0xce5b…047a · 290d ago

Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.3¢$336.8k

LOW 4gibg4i3o · 290d ago

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL No @ 99.4¢$205.5k

MED 0xce5b…047a · 290d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 90¢$90.0k

LOW TwoEyes · 290d ago

Trade this

Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$50.0k

LOW 0x2f4a…7c9f · 291d ago

Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$50.0k

LOW chungguskhan · 290d ago

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY No @ 90¢$46.0k

LOW 0xdd54…b245 · 290d ago

Trade this

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 90¢$45.0k

MED superblueinc · 290d ago

Trade this

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 90¢$45.0k

MED 0xc309…5ccf · 291d ago

Trade this

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 90¢$37.8k

LOW 0xdd54…b245 · 291d ago

Trade this

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 90¢$36.0k

LOW uncleroger · 290d ago

Trade this

Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$35.0k

LOW chungguskhan · 290d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?missed

SELL No @ 91¢$31.9k

MED betwick · 290d ago

Trade this

Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$25.0k

LOW no-cry-in-casino · 290d ago

Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?excluded

SELL No @ 99.8¢$24.5k

LOW no-cry-in-casino · 290d ago

Most traded markets

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

$2.71M · 156 flags

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

$1.61M · 119 flags

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

$351.6k · 12 flags

Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026?

$336.8k · 1 flags

Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?

$174.8k · 5 flags

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?

$78.3k · 3 flags