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no-cry-in-casino

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?−$76Yes · avg 56¢ → 44¢ · $288Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?−$42Yes · avg 37¢ → 16¢ · $32Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?−$483Yes · avg 69¢ → 3.6¢ · $26OpenAI IPO before 2027?−$264Yes · avg 71¢ → 2.9¢ · $11
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$224.1k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$5,042
Last 30 days −$99 · $912.8k volume · 445 trades · since Oct 15, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$5,378
Open P&L · 7 positions
−$10.4k
Closed-position win rate
49%
47 closed
Wallet age · markets
—
53 markets traded

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $19.9k0% 245d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $20.0k100% 245d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $20.0k0% 245d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $25.0k100% 245d agoexcluded
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $24.5k0% 291d agoexcluded
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $25.0k100% 291d agoexcluded
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $25.0k0% 320d agoexcluded
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $25.1k100% 320d agoexcluded
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $19.9k1% 369d agoexcluded
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $19.9k100% 369d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$19.9k
LOW no-cry-in-casino · 245d ago
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$20.0k
LOW no-cry-in-casino · 245d ago
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$20.0k
LOW no-cry-in-casino · 245d ago
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$25.0k
LOW no-cry-in-casino · 245d ago
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$24.5k
LOW no-cry-in-casino · 291d ago
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$25.0k
LOW no-cry-in-casino · 291d ago
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$25.0k
LOW no-cry-in-casino · 320d ago
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$25.1k
LOW no-cry-in-casino · 320d ago
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.4¢$19.9k
LOW no-cry-in-casino · 369d ago
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.5¢$19.9k
LOW no-cry-in-casino · 369d ago

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