0xf98b…bfc5

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did -2.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

-2.0 pts

Called / graded

1/2

Expected from price

1.0

Flagged volume

$199.5k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.9 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$122.6k

Last 30 days +$0 · $34.20M volume · 51,807 trades · since Jun 30, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$1.80M

Open P&L · 500 positions

−$415.9k

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

846d

3833 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	2	1	1.0	-2.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US government shutdown Saturday?	MED SELL Yes @ 86¢	$25.8k	14%	266d ago	missed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW SELL No @ 98.9¢	$75.8k 3.2× usual	1%	267d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 90¢	$51.0k 2.2× usual	90%	291d ago	called
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$15.1k	100%	296d ago	excluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$20.9k	99%	331d ago	excluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	LOW BUY No @ 90¢	$10.9k	90%	334d ago	called

US government shutdown Saturday?missed

SELL Yes @ 86¢$25.8k

MED 0xf98b…bfc5 · 266d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?excluded

SELL No @ 98.9¢$75.8k

LOW 0xf98b…bfc5 · 267d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?called

BUY No @ 90¢$51.0k

LOW 0xf98b…bfc5 · 291d ago

Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded

BUY No @ 99.5¢$15.1k

LOW 0xf98b…bfc5 · 296d ago

Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?excluded

BUY No @ 99.4¢$20.9k

LOW 0xf98b…bfc5 · 331d ago

Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?called

BUY No @ 90¢$10.9k

LOW 0xf98b…bfc5 · 334d ago

Share this record

<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0xf98b622967de1bfc84585ea7abdf1f9199a3bfc5"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0xf98b622967de1bfc84585ea7abdf1f9199a3bfc5.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>

JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xf98b62…