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What this means. A wallet put $25.8k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 14% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$25.8k
SELL Yes @ 86¢ · 30,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideOther
What happened
Wallet 0xf98b…bfc5 took Yes (sell) for $25.8k at an average 86¢. At that price the market implied a 14% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $25.8k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 86¢
- Implied odds
- 14.0%
- Size
- $25.8k
- Placed
- Jan 30, 13:25 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- 0xf98b…bfc5
- Tx
- 0x54279150…
This wallet's graded record
1/2-2.0 pts
expected 1.0 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -14 ptsYes price · entry 86¢ · resolved Yes · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $64.8k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $19.3k | excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $26.1k | excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $17.0k | excluded |