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tsekinming01

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did -1.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

Yes · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Same side: 1 proven · 0 losing   Other side: 1 proven · 0 losing
Price-adjusted edge
-1.7 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$5.31M
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$111.0k
Last 30 days +$473 · $58.58M volume · 22,897 trades · since Jan 20, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$667.2k
Open P&L · 5 positions
−$958
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
2102d
1096 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Politics100.1-8.4 pts
Economy110.9+5.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 94¢ $18.7k94% 1d agopending
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $20.1k100% 23d agoexcluded
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.5¢ $14.9k98% 33d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $91.5k
2.4× usual
99% 37d agoexcluded
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $38.3k100% 55d agoexcluded
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $10.3k100% 84d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $161.3k
4.3× usual
100% 87d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 73¢ $13.7k27% 88d agomissed
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $30.3k100% 94d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 96¢ $69.0k96% 100d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 92¢ $27.6k92% 101d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 72¢ $16.2k28% 102d agomissed
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $29.6k98% 104d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $126.2k
3.3× usual
100% 110d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 98¢ $11.9k98% 130d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢ $46.8k100% 132d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $34.0k100% 138d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $16.9k99% 139d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 94.1¢ $13.7k6% 142d agomissed
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $27.2k100% 144d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $90.9k
2.4× usual
100% 145d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $50.4k100% 145d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $59.3k100% 145d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ $25.4k99% 145d agoexcluded
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $139.9k
3.7× usual
100% 147d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 84¢ $16.8k16% 148d agomissed
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $110.8k
2.9× usual
99% 150d agoexcluded
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $37.3k99% 158d agoexcluded
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $13.8k99% 159d agoexcluded
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $276.7k
7.3× usual
100% 166d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 89¢ $20.2k89% 170d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW BUY No @ 97¢ $53.8k97% 176d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $219.3k
5.8× usual
100% 177d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $247.3k
6.5× usual
100% 180d agoexcluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $65.2k0% 188d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.3¢ $89.2k
2.4× usual
99% 189d agoexcluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $65.2k100% 190d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.1¢ $49.8k99% 190d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 97.6¢ $10.9k98% 196d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $62.2k100% 199d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $185.2k
4.9× usual
100% 200d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $342.9k
9.1× usual
100% 202d agoexcluded
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $85.8k
2.3× usual
100% 205d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $61.3k100% 205d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $107.6k
2.8× usual
100% 205d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $32.7k100% 206d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $13.2k100% 206d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $54.4k99% 212d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 97.2¢ $61.9k97% 219d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢ $10.6k95% 219d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢ $60.0k100% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW SELL Yes @ 97.1¢ $29.1k3% 237d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢ $71.2k99% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?MED SELL No @ 96.6¢ $68.0k3% 238d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $32.4k99% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $45.9k99% 243d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $26.3k100% 244d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?MED SELL No @ 95.1¢ $35.2k5% 247d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY No @ 97.1¢ $12.7k97% 250d agoexcluded
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $40.0k0% 256d agoexcluded
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $10.9k100% 257d agoexcluded
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $31.6k100% 258d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $58.2k94% 262d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $13.2k92% 262d agomissed
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $19.3k100% 262d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $11.0k0% 263d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ $15.0k0% 264d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $43.7k100% 265d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ $42.9k0% 265d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $12.6k0% 265d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $88.3k
2.3× usual
100% 266d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.1¢ $21.5k99% 272d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?MED SELL No @ 94¢ $50.8k6% 272d agomissed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 98¢ $10.5k98% 275d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 98¢ $24.5k98% 275d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 97.5¢ $71.6k98% 276d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?LOW BUY No @ 93¢ $53.5k93% 280d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?LOW BUY No @ 93¢ $25.0k93% 280d agocalled
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?MED SELL No @ 99.8¢ $239.5k
6.3× usual
0% 293d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $50.0k100% 294d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $28.6k99% 296d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $69.7k0% 297d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $23.2k0% 298d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $49.8k0% 299d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $29.9k0% 300d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $62.7k0% 302d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $75.4k100% 311d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $98.4k
2.6× usual
100% 313d agoexcluded
Will TIME's Person of the Year for 2025 be a woman?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $24.3k100% 316d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $22.5k99% 324d agoexcluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $14.7k100% 331d agoexcluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW SELL Yes @ 91.6¢ $20.4k8% 361d agomissed

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