Thursday, February 19, 2026

344 whale trades totalling $7.24M from 207 wallets. Biggest: $169.2k sell No on “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?” at 99.4¢. 4 of 4 flags that resolved today called the outcome vs 2.7 expected (+33.0 pts).

Biggest trades

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	Wallet	When	Result
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?	MED SELL No @ 99.4¢	$169.2k 5.6× usual	1%	Snpe	247d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$156.8k	100%	ClaudeAI	246d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$122.9k 3.0× usual	100%	onekey09	246d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 73¢	$110.6k	73%	GCottrell93	247d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	HIGH SELL No @ 75¢	$100.3k	25%	0x40e1…973f	246d ago	called	Trade this
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	MED BUY Yes @ 41¢	$100.0k	41%	Ga7272 NEW	247d ago	missed	Trade this
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February?	LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢	$93.7k 3.5× usual	99%	pwnatorul	247d ago	excluded
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February?	LOW BUY No @ 99¢	$70.4k	99%	jwp9999	246d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 78¢	$66.8k 4.3× usual	78%	Casdifer	246d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 76¢	$61.1k 3.5× usual	76%	cynical.reason	247d ago	excluded
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-21?	LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢	$60.8k 2.0× usual	54%	Yamato1945	247d ago	missed	Trade this
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$51.1k 2.6× usual	100%	xanxus1	246d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$51.1k	100%	onekey09	246d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢	$49.7k	99%	kgvdotcom	247d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢	$49.3k	98%	AcctToBeRetired	247d ago	excluded

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL No @ 99.4¢$169.2k

MED Snpe · 247d ago

US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$156.8k

LOW ClaudeAI · 246d ago

US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$122.9k

LOW onekey09 · 246d ago

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 73¢$110.6k

MED GCottrell93 · 247d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?called

SELL No @ 75¢$100.3k

HIGH 0x40e1…973f · 246d ago

Trade this

Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?missed

BUY Yes @ 41¢$100.0k

MED New wallet Ga7272 · 247d ago

Trade this

Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February?excluded

BUY No @ 98.7¢$93.7k

LOW pwnatorul · 247d ago

Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February?excluded

BUY No @ 99¢$70.4k

LOW jwp9999 · 246d ago

US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 78¢$66.8k

LOW Casdifer · 246d ago

US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 76¢$61.1k

MED cynical.reason · 247d ago

Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-21?missed

BUY Yes @ 54¢$60.8k

LOW Yamato1945 · 247d ago

Trade this

US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$51.1k

LOW xanxus1 · 246d ago

US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.7¢$51.1k

LOW onekey09 · 246d ago

US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.2¢$49.7k

LOW kgvdotcom · 247d ago

US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 98.2¢$49.3k

LOW AcctToBeRetired · 247d ago

Most traded markets

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February?

$1.18M · 70 flags

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

$1.10M · 55 flags

US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?

$1.08M · 32 flags

Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February?

$608.2k · 34 flags

Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February?

$531.0k · 30 flags

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

$469.4k · 19 flags