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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.9 wins, so it did +2.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+2.2 pts
Called / graded
2/3
Expected from price
1.9
Flagged volume
$106.5k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±26.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$245.4k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.29M volume · 130 trades · since Jan 20, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$97.3k
Open P&L · 17 positions
−$342.5k
Closed-position win rate
71%
34 closed
Wallet age · markets
277d
50 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 2 | 1.9 | +2.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $60.8k 2.0× usual |
missed |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 55¢ | $15.4k | called |
 Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev | LOW BUY Alcaraz @ 84¢ | $30.3k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x4eae5a…