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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.1 wins, so it did -42.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-42.5 pts
Called / graded
0/5
Expected from price
2.1
Flagged volume
$2.46M
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$62k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 0 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? at 32¢) and the edge is -45.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 32% · n=4
80–100¢
0% vs 85% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$41.0k
Last 30 days −$3 · $58.07M volume · 53,456 trades · since Jun 02, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$7.43M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$34
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
509d
7910 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -85.0 pts |
| Other | 4 | 0 | 1.3 | -31.9 pts |
History
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x7ba535…