Wednesday, April 22, 2026

230 whale trades totalling $10.59M from 167 wallets. Biggest: $641.9k buy Yes on “Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?” at 99.9¢. 4 of 8 flags that resolved today called the outcome vs 5.1 expected (-13.6 pts).

Biggest trades

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	Wallet	When	Result
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$641.9k	100%	0x90ca…1a4b	184d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$499.5k	100%	0x6fec…3be3	184d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 98.8¢	$402.4k 11.8× usual	1%	0x293e…7674	184d ago	excluded
Magic vs. Pistons	HIGH BUY Pistons @ 78¢	$380.3k 10.4× usual	78%	gatorr	184d ago	called	Trade this
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢	$309.6k	99%	LmaoIloveyou	184d ago	excluded
Magic vs. Pistons	MED BUY Pistons @ 78¢	$307.9k 10.7× usual	78%	martingaleking	184d ago	called	Trade this
Magic vs. Pistons	MED BUY Pistons @ 99.7¢	$280.9k 6.6× usual	100%	0x2a2c…9bc1	184d ago	excluded
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	HIGH SELL No @ 98.7¢	$253.6k	1%	0x0b59…2b78 NEW	184d ago	excluded
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	HIGH SELL No @ 98.7¢	$245.2k	1%	0x0b59…2b78 NEW	185d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$199.6k 5.2× usual	100%	scout	184d ago	excluded
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	HIGH SELL No @ 98.7¢	$182.2k 2.3× usual	1%	0x1845…ce34 NEW	184d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 99.2¢	$167.4k 5.0× usual	1%	Pajamapants	184d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢	$159.4k 2.7× usual	99%	okcoolstorybro	185d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢	$137.0k 3.8× usual	1%	DonaldinhoTrumpito	184d ago	excluded
Magic vs. Pistons	MED BUY Pistons @ 78¢	$130.2k 5.1× usual	78%	08AF	184d ago	excluded

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$641.9k

LOW 0x90ca…1a4b · 184d ago

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$499.5k

LOW 0x6fec…3be3 · 184d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?excluded

SELL No @ 98.8¢$402.4k

MED 0x293e…7674 · 184d ago

Magic vs. Pistonscalled

BUY Pistons @ 78¢$380.3k

HIGH gatorr · 184d ago

Trade this

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.4¢$309.6k

LOW LmaoIloveyou · 184d ago

Magic vs. Pistonscalled

BUY Pistons @ 78¢$307.9k

MED martingaleking · 184d ago

Trade this

Magic vs. Pistonsexcluded

BUY Pistons @ 99.7¢$280.9k

MED 0x2a2c…9bc1 · 184d ago

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded

SELL No @ 98.7¢$253.6k

HIGH New wallet 0x0b59…2b78 · 184d ago

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded

SELL No @ 98.7¢$245.2k

HIGH New wallet 0x0b59…2b78 · 185d ago

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$199.6k

LOW scout · 184d ago

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded

SELL No @ 98.7¢$182.2k

HIGH New wallet 0x1845…ce34 · 184d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?excluded

SELL No @ 99.2¢$167.4k

MED Pajamapants · 184d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?excluded

BUY No @ 99.2¢$159.4k

LOW okcoolstorybro · 185d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?excluded

SELL No @ 99.3¢$137.0k

LOW DonaldinhoTrumpito · 184d ago

Magic vs. Pistonsexcluded

BUY Pistons @ 78¢$130.2k

MED 08AF · 184d ago

Most traded markets

Magic vs. Pistons

$1.89M · 32 flags

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

$1.11M · 15 flags

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

$979.2k · 22 flags

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?

$741.2k · 3 flags

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

$695.1k · 17 flags

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

$681.0k · 3 flags