Thursday, April 23, 2026

203 whale trades totalling $8.80M from 144 wallets. Biggest: $670.2k buy No on “Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?” at 99.9¢. 7 of 16 flags that resolved today called the outcome vs 7.8 expected (-4.7 pts).

Biggest trades

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	Wallet	When	Result
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	MED BUY No @ 99.9¢	$670.2k 16.1× usual	100%	Pestle	184d ago	excluded
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	HIGH SELL No @ 98.7¢	$428.1k	1%	0x8da9…bc2b NEW	183d ago	excluded
Knicks vs. Hawks	MED SELL Hawks @ 99.9¢	$379.0k 12.0× usual	0%	BruceWayne77	183d ago	excluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	MED BUY No @ 99.8¢	$278.2k 6.7× usual	100%	Pestle	184d ago	excluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	MED BUY No @ 99.9¢	$266.9k 6.4× usual	100%	Pestle	184d ago	excluded
Knicks vs. Hawks	MED BUY Hawks @ 75¢	$217.1k 6.9× usual	75%	BruceWayne77	183d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 62¢	$200.0k 2.6× usual	62%	AML	184d ago	called	Trade this
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	HIGH SELL No @ 98.7¢	$192.5k	1%	0x70ec…e7b9 NEW	183d ago	excluded
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢	$141.6k 3.4× usual	98%	66601	183d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$136.9k 5.3× usual	100%	RobertoRubio	183d ago	excluded
Knicks vs. Hawks	HIGH BUY Hawks @ 49¢	$129.9k 2.0× usual	49%	weflyhigh PROVEN	183d ago	called	Trade this
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	LOW BUY No @ 97.1¢	$114.5k 3.2× usual	97%	aff3 PROVEN	183d ago	excluded
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves	MED BUY Timberwolves @ 92.8¢	$113.8k 2.7× usual	93%	0x2a2c…9bc1	183d ago	excluded
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$108.3k 2.6× usual	100%	66601	183d ago	excluded
Knicks vs. Hawks	LOW SELL Hawks @ 99.9¢	$107.9k	0%	0x8a6c…0b3f	183d ago	excluded

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$670.2k

MED Pestle · 184d ago

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded

SELL No @ 98.7¢$428.1k

HIGH New wallet 0x8da9…bc2b · 183d ago

Knicks vs. Hawksexcluded

SELL Hawks @ 99.9¢$379.0k

MED BruceWayne77 · 183d ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.8¢$278.2k

MED Pestle · 184d ago

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$266.9k

MED Pestle · 184d ago

Knicks vs. Hawksexcluded

BUY Hawks @ 75¢$217.1k

MED BruceWayne77 · 183d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?called

BUY No @ 62¢$200.0k

MED AML · 184d ago

Trade this

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded

SELL No @ 98.7¢$192.5k

HIGH New wallet 0x70ec…e7b9 · 183d ago

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded

BUY No @ 98.2¢$141.6k

LOW 66601 · 183d ago

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$136.9k

LOW RobertoRubio · 183d ago

Knicks vs. Hawkscalled

BUY Hawks @ 49¢$129.9k

HIGH PROVEN weflyhigh · 183d ago

Trade this

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?excluded

BUY No @ 97.1¢$114.5k

LOW PROVEN aff3 · 183d ago

Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesexcluded

BUY Timberwolves @ 92.8¢$113.8k

MED 0x2a2c…9bc1 · 183d ago

Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.5¢$108.3k

LOW 66601 · 183d ago

Knicks vs. Hawksexcluded

SELL Hawks @ 99.9¢$107.9k

LOW 0x8a6c…0b3f · 183d ago

Most traded markets

Knicks vs. Hawks

$1.72M · 36 flags

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

$937.1k · 2 flags

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

$851.6k · 24 flags

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves

$723.3k · 26 flags

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

$620.6k · 2 flags

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

$448.0k · 17 flags