← Wallets
+$38.8kNo · avg 50¢ → 91.1¢ · $86.1k−$38.8kYes · avg 50¢ → 8.9¢ · $8,410−$25Yes · avg 51¢ → 50¢ · $2,525−$3,390Yes · avg 64¢ → 7.5¢ · $450−$1,310Yes · avg 50¢ → 4.7¢ · $134−$950Yes · avg 39¢ → 3.1¢ · $84
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +7.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+7.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$529.8k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±25.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$19.2k
Last 30 days −$250 · $4.11M volume · 3,114 trades · since Sep 24, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$35.4k
Open P&L · 12 positions
−$16.2k
Closed-position win rate
82%
207 closed
Wallet age · markets
760d
203 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +7.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $23.2k | called |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | LOW BUY No @ 98¢ | $29.4k | excluded |
 Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? | LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ | $13.9k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ | $23.8k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $25.8k | excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $136.9k 5.3× usual |
excluded |
 US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | MED SELL No @ 90¢ | $42.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ | $16.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $166.7k 6.5× usual |
excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $41.9k | excluded |
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