Thursday, April 16, 2026

193 whale trades totalling $12.82M from 130 wallets. Biggest: $5.37M buy Yes on “Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?” at 99.9¢. 0 of 1 flags that resolved today called the outcome vs 0.5 expected (-52.0 pts).

Biggest trades

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	Wallet	When	Result
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$5.37M 24.0× usual	100%	poorsob	190d ago	excluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$495.9k	100%	CAR-AyatollahVersion	190d ago	excluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$211.1k 5.1× usual	100%	Pestle	191d ago	excluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$210.8k 5.1× usual	100%	Pestle	191d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	MED SELL Yes @ 99¢	$209.4k 5.0× usual	1%	Pestle	191d ago	excluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$206.8k 8.4× usual	100%	Dropper	190d ago	excluded
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	HIGH SELL No @ 98.7¢	$193.3k	1%	0x9d2e…b20a NEW	190d ago	excluded
Hornets vs. Magic	MED BUY Hornets @ 61¢	$190.6k 2.8× usual	61%	vbv19	190d ago	missed	Trade this
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$180.1k 6.1× usual	100%	realbengvir	190d ago	excluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$172.5k 4.7× usual	100%	CongMingLabs	191d ago	excluded
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Leylah Fernandez vs Zeynep Sonmez	LOW SELL Leylah Fernandez @ 99.9¢	$170.2k 2.9× usual	0%	Dhdhsjsj	190d ago	excluded
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	HIGH SELL No @ 98.7¢	$165.5k	1%	0x9d2e…b20a NEW	191d ago	excluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	MED SELL Yes @ 99.7¢	$149.0k 7.2× usual	0%	tourists	190d ago	excluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$129.7k 2.5× usual	0%	JAHODA	190d ago	excluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$112.1k 5.4× usual	0%	tourists	190d ago	excluded

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$5.37M

LOW poorsob · 190d ago

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$495.9k

LOW CAR-AyatollahVersion · 190d ago

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.8¢$211.1k

LOW Pestle · 191d ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.7¢$210.8k

LOW Pestle · 191d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99¢$209.4k

MED Pestle · 191d ago

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$206.8k

LOW Dropper · 190d ago

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded

SELL No @ 98.7¢$193.3k

HIGH New wallet 0x9d2e…b20a · 190d ago

Hornets vs. Magicmissed

BUY Hornets @ 61¢$190.6k

MED vbv19 · 190d ago

Trade this

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$180.1k

LOW realbengvir · 190d ago

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$172.5k

LOW CongMingLabs · 191d ago

Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Leylah Fernandez vs Zeynep Sonmezexcluded

SELL Leylah Fernandez @ 99.9¢$170.2k

LOW Dhdhsjsj · 190d ago

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded

SELL No @ 98.7¢$165.5k

HIGH New wallet 0x9d2e…b20a · 191d ago

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.7¢$149.0k

MED tourists · 190d ago

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$129.7k

LOW JAHODA · 190d ago

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$112.1k

LOW tourists · 190d ago

Most traded markets

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?

$7.84M · 45 flags

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

$557.4k · 15 flags

Warriors vs. Clippers

$497.3k · 21 flags

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

$358.8k · 2 flags

Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Leylah Fernandez vs Zeynep Sonmez

$332.9k · 7 flags

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

$278.8k · 3 flags