Wednesday, February 4, 2026

136 whale trades totalling $2.94M from 95 wallets. Biggest: $176.5k buy No on “Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?” at 86¢. 2 of 4 flags that resolved today called the outcome vs 1.4 expected (+15.7 pts).

Biggest trades

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	Wallet	When	Result
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	MED BUY No @ 86¢	$176.5k 5.3× usual	86%	Alexparker	262d ago	missed	Trade this
Bruins vs. Panthers	LOW SELL Panthers @ 99.9¢	$164.5k	0%	cozyfnf	261d ago	excluded
Bruins vs. Panthers	MED BUY Panthers @ 55¢	$152.4k 2.4× usual	55%	weflyhigh PROVEN	261d ago	called	Trade this
Bruins vs. Panthers	MED BUY Panthers @ 61¢	$82.7k	61%	cozyfnf	261d ago	excluded
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?	MED SELL Yes @ 80¢	$65.5k	20%	Annica	261d ago	missed	Trade this
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 97.6¢	$64.2k	2%	IlIIllIIIllIIl	261d ago	excluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	HIGH BUY Yes @ 56¢	$63.3k	56%	0x0a59…07dd NEW	261d ago	called	Trade this
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 96.1¢	$50.9k	96%	0x16b1…af6e	261d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	MED SELL No @ 91¢	$50.9k 2.0× usual	9%	0x4488…e319	261d ago	called	Trade this
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	MED SELL No @ 81¢	$50.5k	19%	0x090a…01b4	261d ago	called	Trade this
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢	$48.9k 2.0× usual	99%	The Spirit of Ukraine>UM	261d ago	excluded
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February?	MED SELL Yes @ 68¢	$48.8k	32%	0x8941…cb10	261d ago	missed	Trade this
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢	$42.2k	98%	fed26	261d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 72¢	$37.7k	28%	chungguskhan	261d ago	excluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢	$36.4k	98%	0x331f…7859	261d ago	excluded

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?missed

BUY No @ 86¢$176.5k

MED Alexparker · 262d ago

Trade this

Bruins vs. Panthersexcluded

SELL Panthers @ 99.9¢$164.5k

LOW cozyfnf · 261d ago

Bruins vs. Pantherscalled

BUY Panthers @ 55¢$152.4k

MED PROVEN weflyhigh · 261d ago

Trade this

Bruins vs. Panthersexcluded

BUY Panthers @ 61¢$82.7k

MED cozyfnf · 261d ago

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?missed

SELL Yes @ 80¢$65.5k

MED Annica · 261d ago

Trade this

US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?excluded

SELL No @ 97.6¢$64.2k

LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 261d ago

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?called

BUY Yes @ 56¢$63.3k

HIGH New wallet 0x0a59…07dd · 261d ago

Trade this

US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 96.1¢$50.9k

LOW 0x16b1…af6e · 261d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?called

SELL No @ 91¢$50.9k

MED 0x4488…e319 · 261d ago

Trade this

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?called

SELL No @ 81¢$50.5k

MED 0x090a…01b4 · 261d ago

Trade this

Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.4¢$48.9k

LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 261d ago

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February?missed

SELL Yes @ 68¢$48.8k

MED 0x8941…cb10 · 261d ago

Trade this

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 98.1¢$42.2k

LOW fed26 · 261d ago

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded

SELL No @ 72¢$37.7k

MED chungguskhan · 261d ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 98.1¢$36.4k

LOW 0x331f…7859 · 261d ago

Most traded markets

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

$694.5k · 47 flags

Bruins vs. Panthers

$502.7k · 8 flags

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

$272.5k · 4 flags

US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?

$229.5k · 8 flags

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February?

$184.2k · 9 flags

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

$158.6k · 6 flags