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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +25.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+25.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$227.7k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±43.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$697.3k
Last 30 days +$0 · $100.37M volume · 107,365 trades · since Aug 25, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$3.63M
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
425d
2298 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +25.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $54.3k | excluded |
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $40.0k | excluded |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $32.7k | excluded |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢ | $19.9k | called |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? | MED SELL Yes @ 80¢ | $65.5k | missed |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 18¢ | $15.4k | called |
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