Wednesday, January 21, 2026

113 whale trades totalling $3.18M from 80 wallets. Biggest: $169.8k sell No on “Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?” at 99.9¢.

Biggest trades

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	Wallet	When	Result
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$169.8k 7.7× usual	0%	allen114	275d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98.3¢	$112.3k 3.9× usual	98%	predictgeek	275d ago	excluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$107.1k 2.6× usual	100%	Pestle	275d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢	$95.0k 2.7× usual	97%	1610desktop	275d ago	called	Trade this
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$93.3k 2.2× usual	100%	Pestle	275d ago	excluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$69.0k	100%	Pestle	275d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 98.2¢	$67.7k 3.3× usual	2%	tourists	275d ago	excluded
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$59.7k 2.8× usual	100%	0x421b…ac12	275d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 95¢	$57.6k	95%	onekey09	275d ago	called	Trade this
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?	MED BUY No @ 74¢	$56.7k 2.4× usual	74%	0x0154…15a8	275d ago	missed	Trade this
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 97.8¢	$56.1k	98%	0x36ca…1067	275d ago	excluded
Rams vs. Seahawks	LOW BUY Rams @ 43¢	$52.7k	43%	0x3f10…76b3	275d ago	missed	Trade this
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?	MED BUY No @ 74¢	$51.1k 2.1× usual	74%	0x0154…15a8	275d ago	missed	Trade this
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢	$51.0k	98%	Pestle	275d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 97.6¢	$50.9k	2%	Pestle	275d ago	excluded

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL No @ 99.9¢$169.8k

LOW allen114 · 275d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY Yes @ 98.3¢$112.3k

LOW predictgeek · 275d ago

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$107.1k

LOW Pestle · 275d ago

US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?called

BUY No @ 96.9¢$95.0k

LOW 1610desktop · 275d ago

Trade this

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$93.3k

LOW Pestle · 275d ago

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$69.0k

LOW Pestle · 275d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL Yes @ 98.2¢$67.7k

LOW tourists · 275d ago

Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$59.7k

LOW 0x421b…ac12 · 275d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?called

BUY No @ 95¢$57.6k

LOW onekey09 · 275d ago

Trade this

Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?missed

BUY No @ 74¢$56.7k

MED 0x0154…15a8 · 275d ago

Trade this

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY Yes @ 97.8¢$56.1k

LOW 0x36ca…1067 · 275d ago

Rams vs. Seahawksmissed

BUY Rams @ 43¢$52.7k

LOW 0x3f10…76b3 · 275d ago

Trade this

Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?missed

BUY No @ 74¢$51.1k

MED 0x0154…15a8 · 275d ago

Trade this

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 97.8¢$51.0k

LOW Pestle · 275d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL Yes @ 97.6¢$50.9k

LOW Pestle · 275d ago

Most traded markets

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

$1.10M · 40 flags

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

$319.3k · 4 flags

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

$169.8k · 1 flags

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

$140.7k · 9 flags

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

$122.3k · 4 flags

US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?

$117.8k · 2 flags