0x421b…ac12

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did +26.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

+26.0 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

0.7

Flagged volume

$179.6k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±43.9 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$218.4k

Last 30 days +$42 · $22.74M volume · 21,213 trades · since Nov 07, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$1.60M

Open P&L · 0 positions

+$0

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

—

1969 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Crypto	1	1	0.7	+26.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?	LOW BUY No @ 74¢	$15.2k	74%	253d ago	called
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$14.9k	100%	261d ago	excluded
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$59.7k 2.8× usual	100%	276d ago	excluded
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$23.0k	100%	334d ago	excluded
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$34.0k	100%	356d ago	excluded
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	LOW SELL No @ 96.5¢	$11.2k	4%	359d ago	missed
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	LOW BUY No @ 97¢	$21.5k	97%	359d ago	excluded

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?called

BUY No @ 74¢$15.2k

LOW 0x421b…ac12 · 253d ago

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$14.9k

LOW 0x421b…ac12 · 261d ago

Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$59.7k

LOW 0x421b…ac12 · 276d ago

Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$23.0k

LOW 0x421b…ac12 · 334d ago

Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$34.0k

LOW 0x421b…ac12 · 356d ago

Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?missed

SELL No @ 96.5¢$11.2k

LOW 0x421b…ac12 · 359d ago

Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?excluded

BUY No @ 97¢$21.5k

LOW 0x421b…ac12 · 359d ago

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