Sunday, August 9, 2026

30 whale trades totalling $919.2k from 25 wallets. Biggest: $128.7k buy No on “Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?” at 99¢. 3 of 3 flags that resolved today called the outcome vs 2.8 expected (+5.7 pts).

Biggest trades

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	Wallet	When	Result
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	LOW BUY No @ 99¢	$128.7k 6.0× usual	99%	scottilicious PROVEN	75d ago	excluded
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$127.1k	100%	bondor	75d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢	$116.0k 4.8× usual	0%	The Spirit of Ukraine>UM	75d ago	excluded
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 85¢	$43.2k	85%	ImJustKen	76d ago	called	Trade this
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢	$36.5k	0%	hymolu	75d ago	excluded
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 78¢	$35.5k	78%	scottilicious PROVEN	75d ago	called	Trade this
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢	$35.3k	0%	stupid22	76d ago	excluded
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 70¢	$31.8k	70%	0xf6b4…a116	75d ago	called	Trade this
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 62¢	$29.9k	38%	eightpenguins	75d ago	called	Trade this
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 91¢	$22.8k	91%	Bertapotamous	75d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	LOW BUY No @ 95¢	$20.8k	95%	SlenderMan	75d ago	called	Trade this
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	LOW SELL Yes @ 88¢	$20.8k	12%	MEPP	75d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 63¢	$20.8k	63%	gaven-willwin	75d ago	missed	Trade this
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	LOW BUY No @ 99¢	$19.8k	99%	BuddhaYTorrance	75d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 63¢	$19.6k	63%	Ahufu	75d ago	missed	Trade this

Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?excluded

BUY No @ 99¢$128.7k

LOW PROVEN scottilicious · 75d ago

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$127.1k

LOW bondor · 75d ago

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?excluded

SELL No @ 99.7¢$116.0k

LOW The Spirit of Ukraine>UM · 75d ago

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?called

BUY Yes @ 85¢$43.2k

LOW ImJustKen · 76d ago

Trade this

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?excluded

SELL No @ 99.7¢$36.5k

LOW hymolu · 75d ago

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?called

BUY No @ 78¢$35.5k

MED PROVEN scottilicious · 75d ago

Trade this

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?excluded

SELL No @ 99.5¢$35.3k

LOW stupid22 · 76d ago

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?called

BUY Yes @ 70¢$31.8k

LOW 0xf6b4…a116 · 75d ago

Trade this

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called

SELL Yes @ 62¢$29.9k

LOW eightpenguins · 75d ago

Trade this

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?excluded

BUY Yes @ 91¢$22.8k

LOW Bertapotamous · 75d ago

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?called

BUY No @ 95¢$20.8k

LOW SlenderMan · 75d ago

Trade this

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?excluded

SELL Yes @ 88¢$20.8k

LOW MEPP · 75d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?missed

BUY Yes @ 63¢$20.8k

LOW gaven-willwin · 75d ago

Trade this

Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?excluded

BUY No @ 99¢$19.8k

LOW BuddhaYTorrance · 75d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?missed

BUY Yes @ 63¢$19.6k

LOW Ahufu · 75d ago

Trade this

Most traded markets

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?

$187.9k · 3 flags

Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?

$178.3k · 4 flags

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

$157.0k · 3 flags

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

$99.5k · 5 flags

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

$45.0k · 3 flags

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

$43.6k · 2 flags