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gaven-willwin

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.4 wins, so it did -14.6 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?+$108.6kYes · avg 62¢ → 94.5¢ · $318.5k · 1 proven with, 0 againstUS recession by end of 2026?+$271No · avg 89¢ → 91.5¢ · $9,926
Price-adjusted edge
-14.6 pts
Called / graded
2/3
Expected from price
2.4
Flagged volume
$2.05M
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$156.5k
Last 30 days +$130.3k · $5.68M volume · 2,662 trades · since Mar 18, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
−$100.6k
Open P&L · 5 positions
−$45.9k
Closed-position win rate
72%
32 closed
Wallet age · markets
220d
34 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other322.4-14.6 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 88¢ $22.9k88% 39d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢ $55.9k
2.7× usual
81% 43d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 62¢ $98.6k
4.8× usual
62% 51d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 39¢ $13.9k61% 51d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 39¢ $13.9k61% 52d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 40¢ $20.0k60% 52d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 60¢ $58.1k
2.8× usual
60% 52d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 38¢ $12.0k62% 52d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 39¢ $49.7k
2.4× usual
61% 53d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 42¢ $12.1k58% 53d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 56¢ $47.3k
2.3× usual
44% 56d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 57¢ $15.4k43% 56d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 49¢ $13.0k51% 56d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢ $20.7k65% 60d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ $19.7k67% 61d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ $31.8k68% 61d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 69¢ $20.7k69% 63d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ $19.6k58% 74d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 65¢ $10.3k65% 75d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 63¢ $18.3k63% 75d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 63¢ $20.8k63% 76d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 39¢ $13.9k39% 83d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 39¢ $49.0k
2.4× usual
39% 86d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢ $10.1k76% 88d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 74¢ $19.7k74% 91d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢ $15.9k76% 93d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 78¢ $28.1k78% 93d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ $17.1k77% 93d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢ $39.0k76% 93d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 85¢ $27.1k85% 94d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 95.3¢ $49.6k
2.4× usual
5% 100d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢ $21.2k64% 101d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 95.2¢ $18.2k5% 101d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢ $13.0k80% 115d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢ $59.2k
2.9× usual
81% 116d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢ $14.5k82% 117d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢ $10.4k82% 120d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢ $22.7k81% 120d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 74¢ $22.2k74% 122d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢ $12.9k75% 124d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 72¢ $12.1k72% 127d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 21¢ $18.8k21% 131d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 92¢ $60.5k
2.9× usual
8% 132d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 77¢ $17.1k77% 132d agomissed
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?LOW SELL Yes @ 73¢ $12.1k27% 132d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 92¢ $12.0k8% 133d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 93¢ $11.9k93% 134d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 98.6¢ $27.1k1% 140d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 94¢ $18.3k94% 141d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 94¢ $38.3k94% 141d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 98.6¢ $38.5k1% 141d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.3¢ $16.0k98% 145d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 92¢ $12.0k92% 145d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.3¢ $47.9k
2.3× usual
98% 145d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $177.6k
8.6× usual
0% 145d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 79¢ $72.9k
3.5× usual
79% 150d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 75¢ $24.1k75% 153d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $31.1k92% 154d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $31.1k0% 154d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 93.9¢ $14.8k94% 157d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 97.7¢ $25.5k2% 157d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?MED BUY No @ 91¢ $51.3k
2.5× usual
91% 162d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $28.9k0% 162d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 84¢ $24.4k84% 167d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 97.3¢ $32.0k3% 167d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 96¢ $19.2k96% 170d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 93¢ $59.6k
2.9× usual
93% 181d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ $44.7k
2.2× usual
0% 181d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢ $12.8k95% 219d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 88¢$22.9k
LOW gaven-willwin · 39d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 81¢$55.9k
LOW gaven-willwin · 43d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY Yes @ 62¢$98.6k
MED gaven-willwin · 51d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 39¢$13.9k
LOW gaven-willwin · 51d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
SELL Yes @ 39¢$13.9k
LOW gaven-willwin · 52d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
SELL Yes @ 40¢$20.0k
LOW gaven-willwin · 52d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 60¢$58.1k
MED gaven-willwin · 52d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
SELL Yes @ 38¢$12.0k
LOW gaven-willwin · 52d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
SELL Yes @ 39¢$49.7k
MED gaven-willwin · 53d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?called
SELL No @ 42¢$12.1k
LOW gaven-willwin · 53d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
SELL Yes @ 56¢$47.3k
MED gaven-willwin · 56d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
SELL Yes @ 57¢$15.4k
LOW gaven-willwin · 56d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
SELL Yes @ 49¢$13.0k
LOW gaven-willwin · 56d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY Yes @ 65¢$20.7k
LOW gaven-willwin · 60d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY Yes @ 67¢$19.7k
LOW gaven-willwin · 61d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY Yes @ 68¢$31.8k
LOW gaven-willwin · 61d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY Yes @ 69¢$20.7k
LOW gaven-willwin · 63d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY Yes @ 58¢$19.6k
LOW gaven-willwin · 74d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY No @ 65¢$10.3k
LOW gaven-willwin · 75d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY Yes @ 63¢$18.3k
LOW gaven-willwin · 75d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY Yes @ 63¢$20.8k
LOW gaven-willwin · 76d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY Yes @ 39¢$13.9k
LOW gaven-willwin · 83d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY Yes @ 39¢$49.0k
MED gaven-willwin · 86d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 76¢$10.1k
LOW gaven-willwin · 88d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 74¢$19.7k
LOW gaven-willwin · 91d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 76¢$15.9k
LOW gaven-willwin · 93d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 78¢$28.1k
MED gaven-willwin · 93d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 77¢$17.1k
LOW gaven-willwin · 93d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 76¢$39.0k
LOW gaven-willwin · 93d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 85¢$27.1k
LOW gaven-willwin · 94d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 95.3¢$49.6k
MED gaven-willwin · 100d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY Yes @ 64¢$21.2k
LOW gaven-willwin · 101d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 95.2¢$18.2k
LOW gaven-willwin · 101d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 80¢$13.0k
LOW gaven-willwin · 115d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 81¢$59.2k
LOW gaven-willwin · 116d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 82¢$14.5k
LOW gaven-willwin · 117d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 82¢$10.4k
LOW gaven-willwin · 120d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 81¢$22.7k
LOW gaven-willwin · 120d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 74¢$22.2k
LOW gaven-willwin · 122d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 75¢$12.9k
LOW gaven-willwin · 124d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 72¢$12.1k
LOW gaven-willwin · 127d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 21¢$18.8k
LOW gaven-willwin · 131d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 92¢$60.5k
MED gaven-willwin · 132d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?missed
BUY No @ 77¢$17.1k
LOW gaven-willwin · 132d ago
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?excluded
SELL Yes @ 73¢$12.1k
LOW gaven-willwin · 132d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 92¢$12.0k
LOW gaven-willwin · 133d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 93¢$11.9k
LOW gaven-willwin · 134d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 98.6¢$27.1k
LOW gaven-willwin · 140d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 94¢$18.3k
LOW gaven-willwin · 141d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 94¢$38.3k
LOW gaven-willwin · 141d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 98.6¢$38.5k
LOW gaven-willwin · 141d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 98.3¢$16.0k
LOW gaven-willwin · 145d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 92¢$12.0k
LOW gaven-willwin · 145d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 98.3¢$47.9k
LOW gaven-willwin · 145d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$177.6k
LOW gaven-willwin · 145d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?called
BUY No @ 79¢$72.9k
LOW gaven-willwin · 150d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?called
BUY No @ 75¢$24.1k
LOW gaven-willwin · 153d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?called
BUY No @ 92¢$31.1k
LOW gaven-willwin · 154d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$31.1k
LOW gaven-willwin · 154d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?called
BUY No @ 93.9¢$14.8k
LOW gaven-willwin · 157d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 97.7¢$25.5k
LOW gaven-willwin · 157d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?called
BUY No @ 91¢$51.3k
MED gaven-willwin · 162d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$28.9k
LOW gaven-willwin · 162d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?called
BUY No @ 84¢$24.4k
LOW gaven-willwin · 167d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 97.3¢$32.0k
LOW gaven-willwin · 167d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 96¢$19.2k
LOW gaven-willwin · 170d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 93¢$59.6k
LOW gaven-willwin · 181d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.6¢$44.7k
LOW gaven-willwin · 181d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 95¢$12.8k
LOW gaven-willwin · 219d ago

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