Monday, July 27, 2026

83 whale trades totalling $4.78M from 57 wallets. Biggest: $792.9k buy No on “Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?” at 99.9¢. 1 of 1 flags that resolved today called the outcome vs 0.7 expected (+26.0 pts).

Biggest trades

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	Wallet	When	Result
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	MED BUY No @ 99.9¢	$792.9k	100%	f4fCdFc8355bfEa5D25-1783 NEW	88d ago	excluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$476.0k 4.7× usual	100%	doQysuW7L9-U6xMX8Qgv	88d ago	excluded
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$267.7k	100%	Shirtybonds	88d ago	excluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$260.7k 7.5× usual	99%	pako	88d ago	excluded
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$199.8k 7.1× usual	100%	Car	88d ago	excluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	HIGH BUY No @ 72¢	$195.3k 5.1× usual	72%	monkeyking42 NEW	88d ago	called	Trade this
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$172.7k 3.4× usual	100%	JAHODA	88d ago	excluded
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$163.9k 6.1× usual	100%	yougotme	88d ago	excluded
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$149.8k 3.1× usual	100%	BrightStars	88d ago	excluded
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$139.9k 6.8× usual	100%	tourists	88d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢	$135.1k	100%	MarkrovichBlack	88d ago	excluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	HIGH BUY Yes @ 27¢	$120.1k 3.2× usual	27%	Erasmus. PROVEN	88d ago	missed	Trade this
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	MED SELL Yes @ 72¢	$86.2k	28%	JAHODA	88d ago	missed	Trade this
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	MED SELL Yes @ 78¢	$81.4k 2.4× usual	22%	pako	88d ago	missed	Trade this
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$72.9k 3.6× usual	100%	0xf924…7545	88d ago	excluded

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$792.9k

MED New wallet f4fCdFc8355bfEa5D25-1783 · 88d ago

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$476.0k

LOW doQysuW7L9-U6xMX8Qgv · 88d ago

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$267.7k

LOW Shirtybonds · 88d ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.4¢$260.7k

LOW pako · 88d ago

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$199.8k

LOW Car · 88d ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?called

BUY No @ 72¢$195.3k

HIGH New wallet monkeyking42 · 88d ago

Trade this

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.7¢$172.7k

LOW JAHODA · 88d ago

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$163.9k

LOW yougotme · 88d ago

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$149.8k

LOW BrightStars · 88d ago

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$139.9k

LOW tourists · 88d ago

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?excluded

BUY No @ 99.6¢$135.1k

LOW MarkrovichBlack · 88d ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?missed

BUY Yes @ 27¢$120.1k

HIGH PROVEN Erasmus. · 88d ago

Trade this

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed

SELL Yes @ 72¢$86.2k

MED JAHODA · 88d ago

Trade this

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed

SELL Yes @ 78¢$81.4k

MED pako · 88d ago

Trade this

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$72.9k

LOW 0xf924…7545 · 88d ago

Most traded markets

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?

$1.37M · 4 flags

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?

$980.3k · 9 flags

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

$753.6k · 32 flags

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

$488.0k · 10 flags

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?

$325.6k · 3 flags

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

$207.3k · 4 flags