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What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$1.15M
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$28.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $15.39M volume · 3,012 trades · since Mar 12, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$28.9k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$267
Closed-position win rate
95%
59 closed
Wallet age · markets
226d
58 markets traded
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Trump out as President by August 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $476.0k 4.7× usual |
excluded |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $153.6k | excluded |
 Will Trump visit China by May 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.2¢ | $19.9k | excluded |
 US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $429.0k 4.2× usual |
excluded |
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