Sunday, February 1, 2026

450 whale trades totalling $16.69M from 283 wallets. Biggest: $911.7k buy Yes on “US government shutdown Saturday?” at 99.8¢. 38 of 56 flags that resolved today called the outcome vs 36.8 expected (+2.2 pts).

Biggest trades

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	Wallet	When	Result
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$911.7k 5.9× usual	100%	MarcoGPT	264d ago	excluded
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-01?	HIGH BUY Yes @ 60¢	$622.5k	60%	0xd25c…4d20	264d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$499.0k 11.2× usual	100%	thegreengem	264d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	MED BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$499.0k 3.0× usual	100%	lfg321	264d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$423.6k	100%	ForesightOracle	264d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	HIGH SELL No @ 82¢	$319.4k 3.7× usual	18%	0xd3d7…ac2b	265d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$289.4k	100%	0x59cd…92d2	264d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$225.8k 8.0× usual	100%	95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965	264d ago	excluded
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic	LOW SELL Alcaraz @ 99.9¢	$209.6k 8.5× usual	0%	0x7671…7244	264d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$209.0k 6.8× usual	100%	foodenjoyer	264d ago	excluded
Seahawks vs. Patriots	HIGH BUY Patriots @ 32¢	$208.0k 3.6× usual	32%	gmpm	265d ago	missed	Trade this
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	MED BUY No @ 76¢	$202.7k 7.9× usual	76%	SwissMiss LOSING	264d ago	missed	Trade this
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$201.7k	100%	marsresting	264d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	MED SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$199.1k 2.4× usual	0%	0xce5b…047a	264d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$198.8k 2.5× usual	100%	033033033	265d ago	excluded

US government shutdown Saturday?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$911.7k

LOW MarcoGPT · 264d ago

Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-01?excluded

BUY Yes @ 60¢$622.5k

HIGH 0xd25c…4d20 · 264d ago

US government shutdown Saturday?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$499.0k

LOW thegreengem · 264d ago

US government shutdown Saturday?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$499.0k

MED lfg321 · 264d ago

US government shutdown Saturday?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$423.6k

LOW ForesightOracle · 264d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?excluded

SELL No @ 82¢$319.4k

HIGH 0xd3d7…ac2b · 265d ago

US government shutdown Saturday?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$289.4k

LOW 0x59cd…92d2 · 264d ago

US government shutdown Saturday?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$225.8k

LOW 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965 · 264d ago

Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovicexcluded

SELL Alcaraz @ 99.9¢$209.6k

LOW 0x7671…7244 · 264d ago

US government shutdown Saturday?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$209.0k

LOW foodenjoyer · 264d ago

Seahawks vs. Patriotsmissed

BUY Patriots @ 32¢$208.0k

HIGH gmpm · 265d ago

Trade this

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?missed

BUY No @ 76¢$202.7k

MED LOSING SwissMiss · 264d ago

Trade this

US government shutdown Saturday?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$201.7k

LOW marsresting · 264d ago

US government shutdown Saturday?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$199.1k

MED 0xce5b…047a · 264d ago

US government shutdown Saturday?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$198.8k

LOW 033033033 · 265d ago

Most traded markets

US government shutdown Saturday?

$5.93M · 57 flags

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

$4.09M · 221 flags

Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic

$1.50M · 30 flags

Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-01?

$646.1k · 3 flags

US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?

$636.4k · 25 flags

Kings vs. Hurricanes

$406.7k · 9 flags