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lfg321

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Trump out as President before 2027?+$1,475No · avg 81¢ → 95.8¢ · $9,575
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$3.83M
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$212.6k
Last 30 days +$125 · $47.67M volume · 4,945 trades · since Aug 25, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$211.7k
Open P&L · 3 positions
+$893
Closed-position win rate
91%
88 closed
Wallet age · markets
790d
87 markets traded

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $21.2k100% 142d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?MED BUY No @ 99.6¢ $348.6k
2.1× usual
100% 143d agoexcluded
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ $849.3k
5.1× usual
0% 155d agoexcluded
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?MED BUY No @ 99.9¢ $799.2k
4.8× usual
100% 155d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $24.9k100% 164d agoexcluded
Trump out as President by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $24.9k100% 184d agoexcluded
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $136.1k100% 257d agoexcluded
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $349.6k
2.1× usual
100% 258d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $199.8k0% 262d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?MED BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $499.0k
3.0× usual
100% 264d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $99.8k100% 293d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $135.6k99% 295d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $232.9k0% 295d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $110.3k100% 295d agoexcluded

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