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What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$5.99M
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$106.5k
Last 30 days +$0 · $13.07M volume · 4,465 trades · since Jan 25, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$106.5k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
100%
12 closed
Wallet age · markets
272d
12 markets traded
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ | $55.7k | excluded |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ | $110.4k | excluded |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $422.9k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ | $25.2k | excluded |
 Trump out as President by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ | $68.1k | excluded |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ | $109.9k | excluded |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99¢ | $758.3k 4.9× usual |
excluded |
 US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 96.3¢ | $51.9k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $316.3k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $79.7k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 97.3¢ | $44.1k | excluded |
 US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $930.6k 6.0× usual |
excluded |
 US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $911.7k 5.9× usual |
excluded |
 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.1¢ | $908.0k 5.9× usual |
excluded |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $199.8k | excluded |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $999.0k 6.4× usual |
excluded |
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