Wednesday, April 29, 2026

288 whale trades totalling $32.32M from 195 wallets. Biggest: $4.49M buy No on “US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?” at 99.7¢. 144 of 240 flags that resolved today called the outcome vs 142.1 expected (+0.8 pts).

Biggest trades

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	Wallet	When	Result
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$4.49M 89.5× usual	100%	elmcap2	177d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 99.7¢	$2.77M 13.9× usual	100%	LordofPM	177d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$1.37M	100%	LmaoIloveyou	177d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$995.9k 5.0× usual	100%	hebi007	177d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$933.1k 9.4× usual	100%	NotBakerMcKenzie	177d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 99.8¢	$828.3k	100%	0x0873…326f NEW	177d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 99.8¢	$798.4k 9.6× usual	100%	0x35ed…8252 NEW	177d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$788.0k 4.0× usual	100%	LordofPM	178d ago	excluded
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?	HIGH BUY Yes @ 66¢	$727.7k	66%	jdsahgf	177d ago	excluded
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?	HIGH BUY Yes @ 43¢	$668.0k	43%	jdsahgf	177d ago	missed	Trade this
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$580.3k 22.8× usual	100%	WordleAddict	177d ago	excluded
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?	HIGH BUY No @ 70¢	$551.1k	70%	jdsahgf	177d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	MED SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$538.2k 11.5× usual	0%	Oddinn	177d ago	excluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	MED BUY No @ 99.9¢	$537.0k 11.5× usual	100%	Oddinn	177d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 99.7¢	$478.6k 9.9× usual	100%	BrightStars	177d ago	excluded

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.7¢$4.49M

LOW elmcap2 · 177d ago

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.7¢$2.77M

MED LordofPM · 177d ago

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.8¢$1.37M

LOW LmaoIloveyou · 177d ago

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.8¢$995.9k

LOW hebi007 · 177d ago

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.7¢$933.1k

LOW NotBakerMcKenzie · 177d ago

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.8¢$828.3k

MED New wallet 0x0873…326f · 177d ago

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.8¢$798.4k

MED New wallet 0x35ed…8252 · 177d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$788.0k

LOW LordofPM · 178d ago

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?excluded

BUY Yes @ 66¢$727.7k

HIGH jdsahgf · 177d ago

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?missed

BUY Yes @ 43¢$668.0k

HIGH jdsahgf · 177d ago

Trade this

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.7¢$580.3k

LOW WordleAddict · 177d ago

Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?excluded

BUY No @ 70¢$551.1k

HIGH jdsahgf · 177d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$538.2k

MED Oddinn · 177d ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$537.0k

MED Oddinn · 177d ago

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.7¢$478.6k

MED BrightStars · 177d ago

Most traded markets

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

$18.30M · 66 flags

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

$3.47M · 34 flags

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?

$3.07M · 23 flags

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?

$957.6k · 5 flags

Rockets vs. Lakers

$934.8k · 19 flags

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

$832.8k · 13 flags