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Oddinn

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +16.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+16.5 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$10.50M
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±37.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$8,483
Last 30 days +$21 · $33.93M volume · 13,473 trades · since Aug 25, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$8.05M
Open P&L · 14 positions
−$57
Closed-position win rate
88%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
425d
3313 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Sports110.8+16.5 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $10.0k100% 129d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $26.3k0% 129d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 84¢ $12.6k84% 131d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 99.8¢ $254.6k
5.4× usual
100% 134d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $46.1k100% 134d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.2¢ $68.9k1% 134d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $23.2k100% 134d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 99.9¢ $279.0k
6.0× usual
100% 134d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 99.6¢ $254.2k
5.4× usual
100% 134d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 99.2¢ $231.1k
4.9× usual
1% 134d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $46.9k100% 134d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $18.4k100% 138d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.1¢ $18.3k1% 138d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $18.5k100% 138d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $46.3k100% 138d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.1¢ $46.6k1% 138d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $46.9k100% 138d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $18.0k100% 138d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $17.9k100% 138d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.1¢ $17.8k1% 138d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $18.0k100% 138d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $23.9k100% 139d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $23.9k100% 139d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $23.0k100% 139d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.2¢ $23.8k1% 139d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $29.0k100% 143d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $39.9k100% 176d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $50.0k100% 177d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $89.7k0% 177d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 99.9¢ $537.0k
11.5× usual
100% 177d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $538.2k
11.5× usual
0% 177d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 99.9¢ $384.4k
8.2× usual
100% 177d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $40.0k100% 178d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $113.8k
2.4× usual
100% 178d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $113.8k
2.4× usual
0% 178d agoexcluded
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW SELL Yes @ 16¢ $33.0k84% 178d agocalled
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 99.8¢ $944.3k
20.2× usual
100% 182d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 99.9¢ $945.3k
20.2× usual
100% 182d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 99.5¢ $941.5k
20.1× usual
1% 182d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 99.8¢ $728.7k
15.6× usual
100% 182d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 99.9¢ $952.3k
20.4× usual
100% 182d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 99.8¢ $1.06M
22.6× usual
100% 182d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 99.8¢ $1.06M
22.6× usual
100% 182d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $106.3k
2.3× usual
100% 182d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $31.0k100% 219d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?MED SELL No @ 99.7¢ $155.1k
3.3× usual
0% 221d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$10.0k
LOW Oddinn · 129d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$26.3k
LOW Oddinn · 129d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded
BUY Yes @ 84¢$12.6k
LOW Oddinn · 131d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$254.6k
MED Oddinn · 134d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.6¢$46.1k
LOW Oddinn · 134d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.2¢$68.9k
LOW Oddinn · 134d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$23.2k
LOW Oddinn · 134d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$279.0k
MED Oddinn · 134d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.6¢$254.2k
MED Oddinn · 134d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.2¢$231.1k
MED Oddinn · 134d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$46.9k
LOW Oddinn · 134d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.5¢$18.4k
LOW Oddinn · 138d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.1¢$18.3k
LOW Oddinn · 138d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$18.5k
LOW Oddinn · 138d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.5¢$46.3k
LOW Oddinn · 138d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.1¢$46.6k
LOW Oddinn · 138d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$46.9k
LOW Oddinn · 138d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$18.0k
LOW Oddinn · 138d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.5¢$17.9k
LOW Oddinn · 138d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.1¢$17.8k
LOW Oddinn · 138d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$18.0k
LOW Oddinn · 138d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$23.9k
LOW Oddinn · 139d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.6¢$23.9k
LOW Oddinn · 139d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$23.0k
LOW Oddinn · 139d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.2¢$23.8k
LOW Oddinn · 139d ago
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$29.0k
LOW Oddinn · 143d ago
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$39.9k
LOW Oddinn · 176d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$50.0k
LOW Oddinn · 177d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$89.7k
LOW Oddinn · 177d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$537.0k
MED Oddinn · 177d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$538.2k
MED Oddinn · 177d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$384.4k
MED Oddinn · 177d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$40.0k
LOW Oddinn · 178d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$113.8k
LOW Oddinn · 178d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$113.8k
MED Oddinn · 178d ago
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called
SELL Yes @ 16¢$33.0k
LOW Oddinn · 178d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$944.3k
MED Oddinn · 182d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$945.3k
MED Oddinn · 182d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.5¢$941.5k
MED Oddinn · 182d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$728.7k
MED Oddinn · 182d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$952.3k
MED Oddinn · 182d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$1.06M
MED Oddinn · 182d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$1.06M
MED Oddinn · 182d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$106.3k
LOW Oddinn · 182d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$31.0k
LOW Oddinn · 219d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$155.1k
MED Oddinn · 221d ago

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