NotBakerMcKenzie

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

—

Called / graded

0/0

Expected from price

0.0

Flagged volume

$13.42M

Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$210.8k

Last 30 days +$0 · $93.62M volume · 7,069 trades · since Mar 31, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢	$160.4k	0%	122d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢	$21.7k	98%	140d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢	$584.4k 5.9× usual	100%	143d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$735.4k 7.4× usual	100%	143d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢	$72.2k	99%	143d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢	$229.2k 2.3× usual	99%	143d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 98.8¢	$359.1k 3.6× usual	99%	144d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$110.3k	100%	152d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢	$88.2k	99%	156d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99¢	$53.3k	99%	157d ago	excluded
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	LOW SELL No @ 98.8¢	$32.9k	1%	159d ago	excluded
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$61.2k	100%	164d ago	excluded
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$138.0k	100%	164d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$933.1k 9.4× usual	100%	177d ago	excluded
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$44.1k	100%	180d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$458.9k 4.6× usual	100%	181d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 99.9¢	$1.90M 19.1× usual	0%	182d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$10.0k	99%	185d ago	excluded
Trump out as President by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$55.2k	100%	185d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$24.3k	100%	185d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.3¢	$78.9k	99%	185d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW SELL Yes @ 79¢	$17.3k	21%	188d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢	$15.3k	99%	189d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	MED BUY No @ 99.3¢	$477.7k 4.8× usual	99%	189d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 94¢	$47.7k	94%	189d ago	excluded
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$265.5k 2.7× usual	100%	191d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98.8¢	$48.5k	99%	192d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$399.9k 4.0× usual	100%	200d ago	excluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?	MED SELL No @ 99.9¢	$999.0k 10.1× usual	0%	206d ago	excluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$5.00M 50.4× usual	100%	206d ago	excluded

NotBakerMcKenzie

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