Monday, December 15, 2025

50 whale trades totalling $2.25M from 33 wallets. Biggest: $394.4k buy No on “Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?” at 98.7¢.

Biggest trades

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	Wallet	When	Result
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY No @ 98.7¢	$394.4k 7.6× usual	99%	0xdd57…694d	312d ago	excluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢	$177.7k 3.0× usual	99%	0x1fad…b5b2	312d ago	excluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	MED SELL No @ 98.5¢	$177.4k 3.0× usual	1%	0x1fad…b5b2	312d ago	excluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢	$99.4k 3.2× usual	1%	0xb9d8…275a	312d ago	excluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢	$88.8k 3.2× usual	99%	TwoEyes	312d ago	excluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢	$84.3k 2.4× usual	98%	pako	312d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED SELL Yes @ 76¢	$71.9k 2.5× usual	24%	0x6d77…b72c	312d ago	missed	Trade this
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 76¢	$71.8k	76%	0xdd54…b245	312d ago	called	Trade this
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢	$66.4k	99%	0xea8e…3de0	312d ago	excluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$64.6k	100%	0xf120…9321	312d ago	excluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢	$64.4k	1%	0xf120…9321	312d ago	excluded
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$59.9k	100%	0x1fad…b5b2	312d ago	excluded
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$59.9k	0%	0x1fad…b5b2	312d ago	excluded
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$46.1k	100%	0x6327…e181	312d ago	excluded
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 74¢	$40.0k	74%	0x96c6…34a2	313d ago	missed	Trade this

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 98.7¢$394.4k

MED 0xdd57…694d · 312d ago

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 98.7¢$177.7k

LOW 0x1fad…b5b2 · 312d ago

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL No @ 98.5¢$177.4k

MED 0x1fad…b5b2 · 312d ago

Xi Jinping out in 2025?excluded

SELL No @ 99.4¢$99.4k

LOW 0xb9d8…275a · 312d ago

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 98.7¢$88.8k

LOW TwoEyes · 312d ago

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 98.5¢$84.3k

LOW pako · 312d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?missed

SELL Yes @ 76¢$71.9k

MED 0x6d77…b72c · 312d ago

Trade this

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 76¢$71.8k

MED 0xdd54…b245 · 312d ago

Trade this

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 98.7¢$66.4k

LOW 0xea8e…3de0 · 312d ago

Xi Jinping out in 2025?excluded

BUY No @ 99.5¢$64.6k

LOW 0xf120…9321 · 312d ago

Xi Jinping out in 2025?excluded

SELL No @ 99.4¢$64.4k

LOW 0xf120…9321 · 312d ago

Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$59.9k

LOW 0x1fad…b5b2 · 312d ago

Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League?excluded

SELL No @ 99.8¢$59.9k

LOW 0x1fad…b5b2 · 312d ago

Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$46.1k

LOW 0x6327…e181 · 312d ago

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?missed

BUY No @ 74¢$40.0k

MED 0x96c6…34a2 · 313d ago

Trade this

Most traded markets

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

$1.02M · 11 flags

Xi Jinping out in 2025?

$280.4k · 6 flags

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

$199.7k · 6 flags

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

$146.7k · 7 flags

Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

$138.7k · 3 flags

Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League?

$135.1k · 4 flags