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0xdd57…694d

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +7.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+7.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$8.70M
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±25.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$11.0k
Last 30 days −$179 · $201.28M volume · 101,297 trades · since Aug 02, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$6.81M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$104
Closed-position win rate
96%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
449d
7532 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Economy110.9+7.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResultOpen on Polymarket
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢ $98.2k98% 261d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 93¢ $72.2k93% 264d agocalled
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $96.5k100% 270d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $20.0k100% 280d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $10.4k99% 297d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ $14.8k99% 301d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢ $96.2k1% 303d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢ $79.5k1% 303d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢ $47.5k1% 303d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢ $10.8k1% 303d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ $125.2k
2.4× usual
99% 303d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $62.6k98% 304d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 98.4¢ $14.4k2% 304d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ $33.0k99% 307d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ $83.8k99% 309d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ $16.3k99% 310d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 99.3¢ $595.7k
11.5× usual
99% 310d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 98.8¢ $283.9k
5.5× usual
99% 311d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 98.7¢ $394.4k
7.6× usual
99% 313d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $14.4k99% 319d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $181.6k
3.5× usual
99% 319d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?MED BUY No @ 99.3¢ $283.9k
5.5× usual
99% 319d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $12.3k99% 320d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ $13.4k1% 320d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ $75.5k1% 320d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $49.7k99% 320d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?MED BUY No @ 99.9¢ $1.42M
27.5× usual
100% 321d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?MED BUY No @ 99.9¢ $368.9k
7.1× usual
100% 321d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $93.1k100% 321d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?MED BUY No @ 99.9¢ $531.0k
10.3× usual
100% 321d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $59.9k1% 321d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $70.9k1% 321d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $89.7k99% 321d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $48.2k1% 322d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $12.9k1% 322d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $12.9k1% 322d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?MED SELL No @ 99.4¢ $108.4k
2.1× usual
1% 322d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $12.3k99% 323d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?MED BUY No @ 99.6¢ $649.9k
12.6× usual
100% 323d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $100.7k100% 324d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $12.4k99% 324d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $149.1k
2.9× usual
99% 325d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $248.5k
4.8× usual
99% 325d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $22.3k1% 325d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $53.7k1% 326d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ $10.3k99% 327d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $11.8k99% 329d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 98.8¢ $22.5k1% 330d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $102.8k99% 330d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 98.9¢ $14.2k1% 330d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 98.9¢ $14.3k1% 330d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $91.9k99% 330d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 98.9¢ $14.8k1% 331d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 98.9¢ $13.8k1% 331d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $15.2k99% 331d agoexcluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $28.8k0% 331d agoexcluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $29.5k100% 331d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $12.4k99% 332d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 98.8¢ $15.2k1% 333d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $66.7k99% 333d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ $236.8k
4.6× usual
99% 333d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $27.1k98% 333d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ $30.7k98% 334d agoexcluded
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $232.1k
4.5× usual
100% 334d agoexcluded
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026?MED BUY No @ 99.9¢ $444.3k
8.6× usual
100% 334d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ $114.0k
2.2× usual
98% 334d agoexcluded
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $102.1k100% 335d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢ $38.0k98% 335d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢ $98.3k98% 335d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ $30.0k98% 335d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢ $12.1k98% 335d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 97.6¢ $19.5k2% 337d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.2¢$98.2k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 261d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 93¢$72.2k
MED 0xdd57…694d · 264d ago
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$96.5k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 270d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$20.0k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 280d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.9¢$10.4k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 297d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.7¢$14.8k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 301d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 98.7¢$96.2k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 303d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 98.7¢$79.5k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 303d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 98.7¢$47.5k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 303d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 98.7¢$10.8k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 303d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.7¢$125.2k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 303d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.5¢$62.6k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 304d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 98.4¢$14.4k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 304d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.6¢$33.0k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 307d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.6¢$83.8k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 309d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.6¢$16.3k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 310d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.3¢$595.7k
MED 0xdd57…694d · 310d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.8¢$283.9k
MED 0xdd57…694d · 311d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.7¢$394.4k
MED 0xdd57…694d · 313d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.3¢$14.4k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 319d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.4¢$181.6k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 319d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.3¢$283.9k
MED 0xdd57…694d · 319d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.3¢$12.3k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 320d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.2¢$13.4k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 320d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.2¢$75.5k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 320d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.3¢$49.7k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 320d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$1.42M
MED 0xdd57…694d · 321d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$368.9k
MED 0xdd57…694d · 321d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$93.1k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 321d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$531.0k
MED 0xdd57…694d · 321d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.4¢$59.9k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 321d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.4¢$70.9k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 321d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.4¢$89.7k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 321d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.4¢$48.2k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 322d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.4¢$12.9k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 322d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.4¢$12.9k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 322d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.4¢$108.4k
MED 0xdd57…694d · 322d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.5¢$12.3k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 323d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.6¢$649.9k
MED 0xdd57…694d · 323d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.5¢$100.7k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 324d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.4¢$12.4k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 324d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.4¢$149.1k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 325d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.4¢$248.5k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 325d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.3¢$22.3k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 325d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.3¢$53.7k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 326d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.1¢$10.3k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 327d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.9¢$11.8k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 329d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 98.8¢$22.5k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 330d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99¢$102.8k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 330d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 98.9¢$14.2k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 330d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 98.9¢$14.3k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 330d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99¢$91.9k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 330d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 98.9¢$14.8k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 331d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 98.9¢$13.8k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 331d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.9¢$15.2k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 331d ago
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$28.8k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 331d ago
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$29.5k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 331d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.9¢$12.4k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 332d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 98.8¢$15.2k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 333d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.9¢$66.7k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 333d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.8¢$236.8k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 333d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.5¢$27.1k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 333d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.4¢$30.7k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 334d ago
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$232.1k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 334d ago
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$444.3k
MED 0xdd57…694d · 334d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.3¢$114.0k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 334d ago
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$102.1k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 335d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.2¢$38.0k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 335d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.2¢$98.3k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 335d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.3¢$30.0k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 335d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.2¢$12.1k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 335d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 97.6¢$19.5k
LOW 0xdd57…694d · 337d ago

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