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What this means. A wallet put $16.1k on not No, at a price that gave it a 20% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$16.1k
SELL No @ 80¢ · 20,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideOther
What happened
Wallet Naichli took No (sell) for $16.1k at an average 80¢. At that price the market implied a 20% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $16.1k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 80¢
- Implied odds
- 19.5%
- Size
- $16.1k
- Placed
- Feb 02, 19:55 EST
- Market close
- Feb 03, 18:45 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Naichli
- Tx
- 0x9b4088bf…
This wallet's graded record
3/5+25.9 pts
expected 1.7 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -20 ptsNo price · entry 80¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $60.0k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $13.9k | excluded |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | MED BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $133.2k 6.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $24.9k | excluded |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ | $49.8k | excluded |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢ | $42.0k | excluded |