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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 1.7 wins, so it did +25.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +15.2 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+25.9 pts
Called / graded
3/5
Expected from price
1.7
Flagged volume
$231.0k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$64k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? at 31¢) and the edge is +15.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 19% · n=1
20–40¢
50% vs 32% · n=2
40–60¢
100% vs 44% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$81.4k
Last 30 days −$152 · $17.27M volume · 29,316 trades · since Nov 05, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$955.0k
Open P&L · 21 positions
−$393
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
718d
3144 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 5 | 3 | 1.7 | +25.9 pts |
History
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