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What this means. A wallet put $14.8k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 41% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$14.8k
SELL Yes @ 59¢ · 25,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet Naichli took Yes (sell) for $14.8k at an average 59¢. At that price the market implied a 41% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $14.8k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 59¢
- Implied odds
- 41.0%
- Size
- $14.8k
- Placed
- Jan 29, 16:34 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Naichli
- Tx
- 0x167f0890…
This wallet's graded record
3/5+25.9 pts
expected 1.7 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -41 ptsYes price · entry 59¢ · resolved Yes · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $64.8k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $19.3k | excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $26.1k | excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $17.0k | excluded |