Monday, January 26, 2026

726 whale trades totalling $21.02M from 398 wallets. Biggest: $601.0k buy Hornets on “Spread: Hornets (-2.5)” at 52¢. 16 of 23 flags that resolved today called the outcome vs 13.7 expected (+9.9 pts).

Biggest trades

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	Wallet	When	Result
Spread: Hornets (-2.5)	HIGH BUY Hornets @ 52¢	$601.0k	52%	beachboy4	270d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED SELL Yes @ 99¢	$503.0k 12.1× usual	1%	Pestle	270d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED SELL Yes @ 99.1¢	$455.1k 11.0× usual	1%	Pestle	270d ago	excluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY No @ 99.9¢	$447.1k 10.8× usual	100%	Pestle	270d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED SELL Yes @ 99¢	$412.4k 9.9× usual	1%	Pestle	270d ago	excluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY No @ 99.3¢	$407.2k 9.8× usual	99%	Pestle	270d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢	$388.2k 4.4× usual	98%	0xd3d7…ac2b	270d ago	excluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY No @ 99.9¢	$352.4k 8.5× usual	100%	Pestle	270d ago	excluded
Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)	HIGH BUY Warriors @ 50¢	$296.7k	50%	0x4924…3782	270d ago	missed	Trade this
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$225.2k 5.4× usual	100%	Pestle	270d ago	excluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢	$201.9k 4.9× usual	99%	Pestle	270d ago	excluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$199.8k	0%	MarcoGPT	270d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.2¢	$198.4k 2.5× usual	99%	0x6b2c…5341	271d ago	excluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢	$193.9k 4.7× usual	99%	Pestle	270d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED SELL Yes @ 99.1¢	$193.5k 4.7× usual	1%	Pestle	270d ago	excluded

Spread: Hornets (-2.5)excluded

BUY Hornets @ 52¢$601.0k

HIGH beachboy4 · 270d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99¢$503.0k

MED Pestle · 270d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.1¢$455.1k

MED Pestle · 270d ago

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$447.1k

MED Pestle · 270d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99¢$412.4k

MED Pestle · 270d ago

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.3¢$407.2k

MED Pestle · 270d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?excluded

BUY No @ 98.3¢$388.2k

LOW 0xd3d7…ac2b · 270d ago

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$352.4k

MED Pestle · 270d ago

Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)missed

BUY Warriors @ 50¢$296.7k

HIGH 0x4924…3782 · 270d ago

Trade this

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$225.2k

LOW Pestle · 270d ago

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.3¢$201.9k

LOW Pestle · 270d ago

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL No @ 99.9¢$199.8k

LOW MarcoGPT · 270d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.2¢$198.4k

LOW 0x6b2c…5341 · 271d ago

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.3¢$193.9k

LOW Pestle · 270d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.1¢$193.5k

MED Pestle · 270d ago

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