beachboy4

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.5 wins, so it did -16.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?−$5,166Yes · avg 4¢ → 1.9¢ · $4,849 Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?−$19Yes · avg 55¢ → 44¢ · $81

Price-adjusted edge

-16.2 pts

Called / graded

1/3

Expected from price

1.5

Flagged volume

$14.89M

Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±26.9 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$5.83M

Last 30 days −$11 · $239.13M volume · 7,966 trades · since Nov 30, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$5.83M

Open P&L · 2 positions

−$5,185

Closed-position win rate

56%

232 closed

Wallet age · markets

328d

231 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	3	1	1.5	-16.2 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz	MED BUY Ben Shelton @ 24¢	$163.1k	24%	45d ago	called
US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo	MED BUY Alexander Zverev @ 82¢	$94.0k	82%	48d ago	excluded
US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksby	MED BUY Jenson Brooksby @ 34¢	$42.7k	34%	55d ago	excluded
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-08-15?	HIGH BUY Yes @ 45¢	$329.9k	45%	69d ago	excluded
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala	MED BUY Jessica Pegula @ 63¢	$162.4k	63%	83d ago	missed
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala	MED BUY Jessica Pegula @ 61¢	$184.4k	61%	83d ago	missed
Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-07-25?	MED BUY Yes @ 45¢	$190.8k	45%	90d ago	excluded
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-07-25?	HIGH BUY Yes @ 57¢	$322.1k	57%	90d ago	excluded
Will England win on 2026-07-11?	MED BUY No @ 52¢	$221.4k	52%	104d ago	excluded
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas	HIGH BUY Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 65¢	$427.0k	65%	149d ago	excluded
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?	HIGH BUY Yes @ 78¢	$1.60M 5.0× usual	78%	172d ago	excluded
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets	HIGH BUY Trail Blazers @ 27¢	$128.7k	27%	200d ago	excluded
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-04-04?	HIGH BUY Yes @ 41¢	$340.0k	41%	203d ago	excluded
Cavaliers vs. Lakers	HIGH BUY Cavaliers @ 45¢	$503.6k	45%	206d ago	excluded
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-03-15?	MED BUY Yes @ 47¢	$55.5k	47%	222d ago	excluded
76ers vs. Clippers	HIGH BUY Clippers @ 50¢	$615.0k	50%	263d ago	excluded
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-31?	HIGH BUY Yes @ 60¢	$4.70M 14.6× usual	60%	266d ago	excluded
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-28?	HIGH BUY Yes @ 65¢	$4.20M 13.0× usual	65%	269d ago	excluded
Spread: Hornets (-2.5)	HIGH BUY Hornets @ 52¢	$601.0k	52%	271d ago	excluded

US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcarazcalled

BUY Ben Shelton @ 24¢$163.1k

MED beachboy4 · 45d ago

US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabiloexcluded

BUY Alexander Zverev @ 82¢$94.0k

MED beachboy4 · 48d ago

US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksbyexcluded

BUY Jenson Brooksby @ 34¢$42.7k

MED beachboy4 · 55d ago

Will CF Montréal win on 2026-08-15?excluded

BUY Yes @ 45¢$329.9k

HIGH beachboy4 · 69d ago

Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Ealamissed

BUY Jessica Pegula @ 63¢$162.4k

MED beachboy4 · 83d ago

Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Ealamissed

BUY Jessica Pegula @ 61¢$184.4k

MED beachboy4 · 83d ago

Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-07-25?excluded

BUY Yes @ 45¢$190.8k

MED beachboy4 · 90d ago

Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-07-25?excluded

BUY Yes @ 57¢$322.1k

HIGH beachboy4 · 90d ago

Will England win on 2026-07-11?excluded

BUY No @ 52¢$221.4k

MED beachboy4 · 104d ago

Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipasexcluded

BUY Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 65¢$427.0k

HIGH beachboy4 · 149d ago

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?excluded

BUY Yes @ 78¢$1.60M

HIGH beachboy4 · 172d ago

Trail Blazers vs. Nuggetsexcluded

BUY Trail Blazers @ 27¢$128.7k

HIGH beachboy4 · 200d ago

Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-04-04?excluded

BUY Yes @ 41¢$340.0k

HIGH beachboy4 · 203d ago

Cavaliers vs. Lakersexcluded

BUY Cavaliers @ 45¢$503.6k

HIGH beachboy4 · 206d ago

Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-03-15?excluded

BUY Yes @ 47¢$55.5k

MED beachboy4 · 222d ago

76ers vs. Clippersexcluded

BUY Clippers @ 50¢$615.0k

HIGH beachboy4 · 263d ago

Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-31?excluded

BUY Yes @ 60¢$4.70M

HIGH beachboy4 · 266d ago

Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-28?excluded

BUY Yes @ 65¢$4.20M

HIGH beachboy4 · 269d ago

Spread: Hornets (-2.5)excluded

BUY Hornets @ 52¢$601.0k

HIGH beachboy4 · 271d ago

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