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What this means. A wallet put $41.2k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 34% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$41.2k
BUY Yes @ 34¢ · 120,000 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog side2 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)Fresh walletSports
What happened
Wallet SSJ1993 took Yes (buy) for $41.2k at an average 34¢. At that price the market implied a 34% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
HIGHSize $41.2k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
2 fills within 1h+1
Fresh wallet (new or ≤5 markets)+2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 34¢ means
34%chance the market gave
+192American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 34¢
- Implied odds
- 34.3%
- As American odds
- +192 no vig
- Size
- $41.2k
- Placed
- Jul 02, 21:03 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 14, 20:07 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- SSJ1993
- Tx
- 0xa5f7ec99…
This wallet's graded record
1/1+17.6 pts
expected 0.8 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $19.4k | excluded |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $37.5k | excluded |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ | $43.5k | excluded |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 97.7¢ | $2.57M 63.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ | $30.3k | excluded |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED SELL No @ 97¢ | $26.7k | missed |