macrosteaks

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 0.3 wins, so it did +23.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?+$43No · avg 88¢ → 88¢ · $7,238 Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?+$412No · avg 69¢ → 74¢ · $7,176 Will the Republicans win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026?+$111No · avg 96¢ → 97.7¢ · $6,350 Will Army Black Knights Win the 2026 American Conference?+$44No · avg 88¢ → 89¢ · $5,674 Will Connie Chan win the CA-11 House seat?+$1,222No · avg 60¢ → 78¢ · $5,447 Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?−$2,346No · avg 47¢ → 33¢ · $5,426 Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?−$2,505Yes · avg 48¢ → 33¢ · $5,347 Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?+$721Yes · avg 31¢ → 36¢ · $5,343

Price-adjusted edge

+23.2 pts

Called / graded

1/3

Expected from price

0.3

Flagged volume

$109.1k

Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$8,317

Last 30 days +$3,388 · $18.48M volume · 180,572 trades · since Dec 24, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 450 closed

+$688.7k

Open P&L · 500 positions

+$871

Closed-position win rate

100%

450 closed

Wallet age · markets

670d

14565 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	0	0.2	-19.0 pts
Sports	2	1	0.1	+44.2 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 92¢	$10.9k	8%	98d ago	called
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED SELL No @ 97¢	$26.7k	3%	101d ago	missed
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 95¢	$33.6k 2.4× usual	95%	101d ago	called
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL No @ 96.5¢	$15.3k	4%	115d ago	missed
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW SELL No @ 97.9¢	$10.2k	2%	135d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW SELL Yes @ 81¢	$12.4k	19%	271d ago	missed

Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

SELL Yes @ 92¢$10.9k

LOW macrosteaks · 98d ago

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed

SELL No @ 97¢$26.7k

MED macrosteaks · 101d ago

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

BUY No @ 95¢$33.6k

LOW macrosteaks · 101d ago

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed

SELL No @ 96.5¢$15.3k

LOW macrosteaks · 115d ago

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?excluded

SELL No @ 97.9¢$10.2k

LOW macrosteaks · 135d ago

US government shutdown Saturday?missed

SELL Yes @ 81¢$12.4k

LOW macrosteaks · 271d ago

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