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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +17.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+17.6 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$293.7k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±38.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$93.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.44M volume · 123 trades · since Jul 03, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$93.7k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
40%
5 closed
Wallet age · markets
114d
5 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +17.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | MED SELL France @ 7.6¢ | $11.3k | excluded |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | MED BUY France @ 60¢ | $88.0k 2.3× usual |
missed |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED SELL Yes @ 39¢ | $92.8k 2.5× usual |
called |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 35¢ | $26.3k | missed |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED SELL Yes @ 18¢ | $34.1k | called |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 34¢ | $41.2k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xa84956…