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What this means. A wallet put $100.0k on No, at a price that gave it a 92% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$100.0k
BUY No @ 92¢ · 108,705 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteEarly (>24h before close)2.6× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet MisterFixel took No (buy) for $100.0k at an average 92¢. At that price the market implied a 92% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $100.0k+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 92¢ means
92%chance the market gave
−1149American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 92¢
- Implied odds
- 92.0%
- Size
- $100.0k
- Placed
- May 01, 03:15 EDT
- Market close
- May 08, 16:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- MisterFixel
- Tx
- 0xa3315b08…
This wallet's graded record
1/6-74.8 pts
expected 5.5 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -92 ptsNo price · entry 92¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $519.1k 18.1× usual |
excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $199.8k 5.6× usual |
excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $26.9k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $2.09M 45.5× usual |
excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $492.9k 5.9× usual |
excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $140.7k 8.3× usual |
excluded |