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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 5.5 wins, so it did -74.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-74.8 pts
Called / graded
1/6
Expected from price
5.5
Flagged volume
$414.5k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$252k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? at 97¢) and the edge is -90.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
80–100¢
17% vs 92% · n=6
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$267.3k
Last 30 days −$34 · $959.0k volume · 115 trades · since Aug 29, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$9,431
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$133.2k
Closed-position win rate
61%
18 closed
Wallet age · markets
421d
18 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 6 | 1 | 5.5 | -74.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 92¢ | $100.0k 2.6× usual |
missed |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 94.8¢ | $20.0k | missed |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 90¢ | $39.0k | missed |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 91.7¢ | $59.8k | missed |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98¢ | $90.0k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 84¢ | $34.0k | missed |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $41.7k | excluded |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY No @ 52¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢ | $20.0k | called |
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