← Live flags
What this means. A wallet put $242.5k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 0% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$242.5k
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ · 243,032 shares
Size ≥ $100kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)4.8× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet elmcap2 took Yes (sell) for $242.5k at an average 99.8¢. At that price the market implied a 0% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $242.5k+2
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 99.8¢
- Implied odds
- 0.2%
- Size
- $242.5k
- Placed
- Jun 04, 09:50 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 06, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- elmcap2
- Tx
- 0x29fd030e…
This wallet's graded record
3/3+3.7 pts
expected 2.9 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -0 ptsYes price · entry 99.8¢ · resolved Yes · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $112.1k 5.6× usual |
excluded |
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $112.9k 5.0× usual |
excluded |
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $100.7k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $69.9k 3.8× usual |
excluded |
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $13.9k | excluded |
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $10.0k | excluded |