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Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?excluded
What this means. A wallet put $143.5k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 55% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has a losing record: -19.3 pts vs the price over 28 bets. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?excluded$143.5k
BUY Yes @ 55¢ · 260,858 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $100k2 fills in 1hLate (<1h before start)2.3× this wallet's usual betSports
What happened
Wallet surfandturf took Yes (buy) for $143.5k at an average 55¢. At that price the market implied a 55% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $143.5k+2
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 55¢ means
55%chance the market gave
−122American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 55¢
- Implied odds
- 55.0%
- As American odds
- −122 no vig
- Size
- $143.5k
- Placed
- Jun 27, 16:08 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 27, 17:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- surfandturf
- Tx
- 0xcacbf5cd…
This wallet's graded record
10/28-19.3 pts
expected 15.4 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +45 ptsYes price · entry 55¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $82.5k 5.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $66.6k | excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $25.9k | excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98.1¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | LOW BUY Yes @ 96¢ | $19.8k | excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | LOW BUY Yes @ 91.9¢ | $20.9k | excluded |